Interesting Polling Numbers…

I want to preface this whole piece by saying that I still do believe that no poll accurately reflects the voters’ minds until we get closer to election day, and if we’ve learned anything over the last three or four presidential cycles it’s that we probably depend way too much on these things, and that people are not always honest when it comes to talking to pollsters (SHOCK!). There’s the disclaimer.

I saw an interesting interview on a local TV show out here the other day. It was a local pollster who was talking about presidential politics. He was asked how Arizona would vote in the presidential election. What surprised me is all of the national pundits have said Arizona is in play. Not this guy. He said that Trump would win Arizona by 7 points or more because he “underperforms in all of the polls”.

That was a very interesting thought and one that I had been mulling over. Most polls have had Hillary Clinton leading by anywhere from 6 to 10 points. But the LA Times/USC poll, which does things a little differently, had Donald Trump up by 2. Now, most of these are still using “registered voters” instead of the more expensive to do “likely voters” (the likely voters category is a LOT more accurate). And most of the polls Hillary still falls within the margin of error, as does Trump in the LA Times poll (and by the way for my liberal friends…the Times is not exactly what you’d call a “conservative rag”.

This guy said on the local show that the 6-10 point lead was the remaining “convention bounce” that Clinton had enjoyed for the past month. That, he said, is starting to go away, and should dissipate to pretty much a dead heat in the next couple of weeks. Well, this guy gained a lot of credibility in my book because it’s happening just as he said. The Reuters/IPSOS poll just came out and Clinton’s lead had shrunk from 12 points to 5 in just a week. Now, these were “likely voters”, which is the more accurate of the two. The fact that it dropped 7 points in just 7 days is interesting. It shows two things: Hillary’s bounce had been a major part of the huge lead she had and; she had an absolutely abysmal week… so much so that she stopped campaigning and started fund raising. But even outspending Trump $35 million to $5 million in the last two weeks, she’s dropped in every major poll. That tells me something is happening out there. One of the things is, Trump isn’t stepping on his male member quite as much as he had. And, American’s are starting to leave summer vacation behind and starting to pay attention.

If indeed Trump does “under poll” in these surveys, as this pollster predicted, it could be an even race right now. And if Julian Assange from WikiLeaks does what he says and releases documents that “will cause Hillary Clinton to be arrested” (which I highly doubt), it could very well be enough to sway the electorate. There are two other things which will weigh in here. There are three debates coming up, and Trump has an edge. Oh, Clinton is a much more skilled debater than Trump, no doubt. But so was Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Hell, Cruz was a national debate champion, and he STILL lost to Trump, because Trump’s style is so unconventional. The other problem Hillary has coming up is that on September 23rd, the State Department needs to release another batch of emails to Judicial Watch, and these will involve a lot more scandal for the Democrat nominee. That’s just six weeks ahead of the election and a week ahead of the first debate. It should prove to be very interesting.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

What’s Obama Done For Blacks?

Donald Trump is doing something that most Republican candidates haven’t even thought of doing in the past…he’s courting black voters. Going to North Carolina, Trump reversed position on immigration, saying that now, he’s “softened his stance” and wouldn’t be deporting 11 million illegal aliens. That number would be lower, allowing those that have been hard working and non-criminal to stay (though not gain citizenship).

Next on the agenda was Detroit. The Motor City is one of the most bombed out, torn apart cities in America. It’s lost huge numbers of people. From it’s high of 1.8 million in the 1950 census, Detroit has lost 1.1 million people in 60 years to 713,000! It was 83% white in 1950, and is 90% black today. I’m not saying that has anything to do with the decline in population, because it doesn’t. What DOES have a lot to do is that over that 60 year period, Detroit has been totally controlled by Democrats. And what Donald Trump is going to do is go to Detroit’s inner city, and speak with the blacks and tell them that Barack Obama hasn’t been a friend of theirs. Looking at the data, he’s right.

Even though the White House bristles when you bring up the subject, blacks have lost ground under America’s first “African-American President”. Unemployment for blacks is 8.4% compared to 4.3% for whites. The unemployment rate for whites has fallen 37% over the past eight years, 33% for blacks. More? Sure…fewer blacks own homes today than in 2008. Black home ownership stands at 41.7% compared to 46.1% in 2009, that’s a drop of about 10%. Under Obama, blacks living under the poverty line has increased from 25.8 to 26.2%, and blacks on food stamps have risen from 7.3 million to 11.7 million, a 58% increase.

Those numbers are hard to combat if you’re Obama. And Donald Trump thinks if he goes in, talks to the people using the “what do you have to lose” strategy, he can pick up some ground. Now, that’s a very tough thing to do. You can have discussions with Democrats all day long (and I do), to find out WHY they would support Hillary Clinton, and it comes down to one simple thing: she’s a Democrat. She could be a mass murderer (oops…she’s been accused of that, hasn’t she?) and they’d still back her because she’s NOT a Republican. They’d rather have a murderous, scathing, lying, psychopath in the White House (and I’m not saying she’s all of that…I’m using that as an example) than a Republican of good standing (and again, I’m NOT saying Donald Trump fits that mold either!). That’s just sad, but it shows how much America has been dumbed down. We care more about the party in charge (both sides do) than we do about the people actually running!

Obama has been a failure as a president. He hasn’t had one success in foreign policy, and his domestic agenda has been riddled with court cases going against him, executive orders that end up being overturned by the Supreme Court, and actions that will be undone the next time a Republican gets elected president. What he’s done for the black community? Well, that’s just criminal.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Still Think She’s “Innocent”?

The doo-doo just keeps getting deeper and deeper around Hillary Clinton. Caught in no fewer than a dozen lies on her email server, and why she did what she did, it’s now been learned that Clinton and her teamed used a “bleach-bit” shredder to erase the 14,000 additional emails the FBI has uncovered. It’s a rather extraordinary step to go through to make sure that “personal” email about Chelsea’s wedding and yoga routines weren’t read.

In fact, it’s so rare to use this method, that Trey Gowdy, who’s been investigating Benghazi on the House Select Committee, and stumbled into the email server, said it just isn’t done by anybody…and that God himself couldn’t read those emails. Except the FBI must have supernatural powers, because they found a way to get them. And, it turns out they are just as damning if not more so than the thousands that Clinton did indeed turn over to the State Department.

What this shows is a continual lack of responsibility on the part of the Democrat nominee to actually follow the law and tell the truth. The funny thing is that I’ve talked to several Democrats who back Clinton, and when I ask them about her lying, they immediately say, “all politicians lie”. I’m not so sure that’s the case…at least to the extent that Clinton has. And when I ask them if she feels that she’s above the law, the typical answer I get is, “Oh, it’s just a bunch of meaningless emails…it’s nothing more than a Republican plot to discredit her.

Well, it’s looking more and more like some of the high-profile Democrats who were originally backing Clinton are now starting to back away a little bit. Not full-fledged backing away, but as more and more crap is coming out about this whole email scandal and how it’s getting tied to “pay to play” with the Clinton Foundation, there are bunches of folks who are starting to think this is a cover up that is smelling an awful lot like Watergate.

Now, mind you, the uber-left and the brain dead are still backing Clinton are very quick to change topics and start blaming Donald Trump for stuff. They can’t answer the straight questions when asked such as, “Why are you backing a known and convicted pathological liar?” or “If its found out that Hillary Clinton is guilty of perjury, or any other crime, would you no longer back her?” They are exceedingly quick to change topics rather than answer the obvious questions.

So, the longer this thing goes, the more the dog doo-doo rises. Currently, it’s near Hillary’s shoulders, and rising rapidly. I think we’re just to the point in the Watergate scenario where John Dean is about ready to testify. We’re getting close to it. You can sense that there is a frustration level with the Clinton campaign that this stuff isn’t going away, and it’s only getting more and more serious. Smells a lot like Watergate to me. And you know…if it can bring down a sitting president, taking out a mere candidate, even one named Clinton, shouldn’t be that hard!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

“Ratifying” The Paris Accord

So Emperor Obama is in China trying to meet with the Chinese overlords and see if he can do anything else to denigrate America. And while he’s there, he’s decided that it’s time America get serious about “global change, er, climate warming, er…changing warming…er”… something like that. So the word was leaked out that while he’s in China meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he would “ratify” the Paris Accord for America…without the consent of congress.

Of course, it’s a slap in the face of every American that actually still believes in the constitution. And it’s a stretch that it will ever mean anything. First of all, a president cannot unilaterally “ratify” anything. He must get consent of the US Senate on that stuff. It IS after all in the constitution, as inconvenient of a truth as that is (with no apologies to Al Gore). Second, if he does decide he wants to call it something other than a treaty, Bobo is going to find, yet another problem when he gets home. The “ratifying” will be only good while he’s president (another few months), and congress certainly isn’t going to be beholden to anything that he unilaterally does. Which means that no laws are going to be passed and that means he can make all of the executive orders he wishes, but they die when his term is over if his predecessor so wishes. Third, I’m sure the Supreme Court, even with eight members, can reach a majority conclusion that a president cannot unilaterally ratify a treat agreement and most certainly cannot enforce it.

The over-reach that this president has shown has been almost (but not quite) historical in nature. Most of the predecessors of the recent past (say the past 50 years or so) have actually followed the constitution, and not tried to unilaterally change it because they didn’t like what it said. As much as it may grieve liberals, the constitution isn’t a living, breathing document. It is a paper document, and the last time I checked, paper wasn’t alive and has never taken a breath. It IS however, our guiding principles of what we view as legal and illegal. Now, I know that doesn’t mean much to a “community organizer” from the mean streets of Chicago, where anything goes in order to get your way, but for the rest of the country, it DOES hold some value. And you can’t just use it to wipe your feet on after a round of golf.

No, Obama is once again, out of bounds on this one. It’s been his over-riding legacy that will outshine Obamacare, it will be brighter in the history books than the Iran Nuclear Debacle, and will most assuredly trump (no pun intended), the Trans Pacific Partnership. Over-reaching your power is something Bobo has felt was his right as Emperor. The only problem was, we only elected him president. Someone forgot to tell him that!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

So When Is It OK For Politicians To Lie?

I must be getting old. I think back to presidents of both parties and I can’t really remember them lying all that much to the American people, and when they did, like Nixon in Watergate, they got hung for it. They paid the ultimate price…they lost their seats and were disgraced, never to be a politician again. Maybe I’m just being a little naïve here, but I don’t think so.

Today, we’ve got a proven, convicted, and terminal pathological liar that even 85% of her own party says they know she lies constantly, running for president, AND LEADING! We’ve got another guy that swore to the American people just a couple of weeks ago at the Pentagon that the $400 million payment we made to Iran was their money, and wasn’t tied to any hostage situation. It was just the timing of the thing. When asked why he didn’t just wire the money, he replied that he couldn’t. Iran had sanctions on it, and it would have been against the law to wire the money to them. Now we learn that two days after we sent an airplane there in the dead of night with the $400 million, we DID wire, 13 TIMES, one penny under $100 million dollars to Iran. We did it without lifting any sanctions, without approval of congress (which the constitution says you need to do), and under the radar of all monitoring authorities (which is why it was $99,999,999.99 and not $100 million each!). So, once again, Obama lied to the American people, and no one seems to care. Well, let me make myself perfectly clear (to quote another famous American politician/liar), I care. You should too.

Honesty is the basis of every relationship. Not just politics, but with you and your spouse or boyfriend/girlfriend; you and your boss or your employees; with your friends; with your neighbors; with your kids and them with you. If you don’t have honesty, you don’t have a solid relationship, you have a relationship built on sand. Hmm…maybe that’s why “bearing false witness” is one of the Thou Shalt Nots in the Bible? If you can’t be honest with someone, you don’t have anything. You’ve lied and you can’t be believed. All communications cease at that point. And that’s why Hillary Clinton hasn’t had a press conference in over six months. She doesn’t want to have to face the lies she’s repeatedly told to the American public about her time as Secretary of State, which seems like it wasn’t that successful now, does it?

I guess that’s one more “Obama legacy” that Hillary is hoping to continue if she can con enough people into voting for her. It’s not about politics in the sense of Republican vs. Democrat. It’s about truth versus lying. It’s about honesty. Can you really say that you would elect someone to the highest office in the land that is a convicted pathological liar? How will you ever know what is the truth and what is just another lie?

I’m not saying that all of the myriad of scandals the Clintons have been involved in over the past 40 years have all been true. But there has been a pattern. There has been a trail of smoke that never seems to let up. And usually, it’s been my experience that where there’s smoke there’s fire. And no, I’m not saying that Hillary’s opponent is 100% an angel. No one gets to become a billionaire on this planet without some devil in them! But 40 years of scandal after scandal leads one to believe the truth is something those two only know as a five letter word and nothing more. It’s sad.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

OK…If Hillary ISN’T Sick…

The internet is a wonderful place for information. It’s an even better place for mis-information. And to be honest with you, I’m not really sure which is which when it comes to the health of Hillary Clinton. She swears that she’s healthy enough to be president. Of course, so was William Henry Harrison…until he caught pneumonia and died 30 days later. On the other hand, there’s an awful lot of bad information out there floating around, and yes, there are people who believe it or not, would start negative rumors about a candidate they don’t like. I’m not one of them. I want the facts.

Unfortunately, that’s not all that easy to get to. I’ve read all of the documents on both sides that I can find on Hillary’s health. Yes, it does appear, as Rudy Giuliani says, that there is something wrong with the candidate. But that could also be internet hype. Is she sick? If so, regardless of her hopes and dreams to become president, she owes it to the American public to fess up. If not, then the people that are spreading rumors ought to be punished. But then again, that trust factor creeps into the picture, doesn’t it? This is exactly why, as I have said numerous times, you have to be honest with people from the start. You can’t be a liar (and she is), and expect people to believe you. They just won’t. So, if Hillary isn’t sick, then she’s partly to blame because we just can’t believe anything that she says.

And I’m not letting Donald Trump skate on this one either. He won’t release his income taxes…which is something every presidential candidate for the last fifty years has done. He says it’s because he’s under an IRS audit. OK, then release a tax return that isn’t being audited…I’m sure you’ve got several out there. Look, either there is something to hide in there (like the liberals are saying he’s taking money from Russia), or it’s just a crappy internet rumor. Either way, let the truth come out and let the American people decide. It’s the same damn thing as Hillary’s healthy. And frankly, there aren’t a lot of people that are going to wade through your tax return…so what if they find that you only pay 15% taxes and that secretary in Des Moines, Iowa pays 22%? You probably pay your CPA a little more than she does. Just be honest.

I’m getting really tired of politicians, and it cuts both ways, that won’t be honest with the American people. They don’t feel that we can take the truth, or that the truth won’t set them free, it will kill them. The truth may hurt sometimes, but I can’t honestly tell you a time when in the long run, it hasn’t been the best option. Just ask Richard Nixon. Ask Bill Clinton. Ask any number of congressmen and women who have lied to us about any number of topics.

Is Hillary sick? Is Donald cheating on his taxes? Let’s find out the truth. And let’s do it both ways before November 8th, shall we? The best way to do this is get both to sign a pledge. If Hillary IS sick and is lying about it, she forfeits the presidency if she wins. If Trump wins and he’s lying about something in his taxes, and it’s not just about an IRS audit, then HE forfeits the presidency. In both cases the other party gets it. Fair enough?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed.

Here’s Hillary’s Problem Going Forward…

Hillary Clinton, by all measures is doing everything right in her campaign for the presidency. If you look at it, she has a tremendous ground game. She’s enlisted the best and brightest staff and has about 100 times the paid staff Donald Trump has. She’s outraised Trump up until this last month. And she’s outspent Trump 10-1 when it comes to advertising. Her message has been uber-focused on the fact that Trump is unfit to become president. She’s not said much as far as policy, because that won’t win her the election. Instead, she’s trying to make this a referendum on Trump.

So if she’s doing everything right, why is the race tightening?

Trump had an absolutely horrendous three week period. Until he got rid of Paul Manafort, he struggled day to day. Since then, which has been less than a week, he’s rebounding. In fact, polls that showed Hillary Clinton up by 10 points nationally have come down to about half that. Now that is a puzzling statistic when you think about it. You have a superior fundraising effort, you have a superior ground game, and you have a superior staff. Why in hell aren’t you blowing a political newcomer with very little political experience, and even less moxie totally out of the water?

The reason is: She’s Hillary Clinton.

If this were any other Democrat…if it were Martin O’Malley, or even Bernie Sanders, their lead would be 20 point by now and this race would be over. But it’s Hillary Clinton. America does not like Hillary Clinton for a myriad of reasons. And just to be fair, she IS a terrible candidate. She’s shrill and screeches. Her campaign is having a hard time drawing a crowd anywhere she goes, and even though she’s got the media firmly behind her, she’s losing ground to Trump. Why?

It’s simple. She’s a terrible candidate that the more America sees of her, the less they like her. Trump has made a slew of really, unbelievably bad mistakes since the GOP convention. And he’s still in it? If this were a different candidate in almost any other year, he would have to be dropping out over the gaffes he’s made. Of course, Hillary being caught in lie after lie, scandal after scandal, and the nation’s top cop calling her “untruthful” doesn’t help her too much. We haven’t even gotten to Labor Day yet, when most people put away the beach wear and start focusing on the campaign. When that happens, and all of the pollsters switch from “registered voters” to “likely voters”, the race will tighten even more. The reason? Hillary Clinton is just not exciting. She’s another John McCain or Bob Dole in that sense of the word. She’s a policy wonk that can’t get people excited. She can mock Donald Trump, but when is the last time that worked in an election. IF (and I’ll be the first to admit, it’s a VERY large “IF”) Donald Trump can stay on message and make this campaign about the issues, which is what the debates will focus on, he will most assuredly close the gap. When that happens, all the mud-slinging in the world isn’t going to stop people from seeing what’s really going on. It’s a wide open race. Who wins is whoever makes the fewest mistakes from today going forward…it’s that simple!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!