We are 9 months away from the “mid-term elections”, those elections in which we elect all of the House of Representatives, and a third of the Senate, but not the president. If what is going on is any indication of what’s to come up the road in 9 months, we’re in for a helluva ride! Now, 9 months is a lifetime in terms of politics, but, according to what I see, a) the Democrats have basically given up on winning the House; b) the Dems are equally scared they are going to lose the Senate; c) Obama is about ready to throw in the towel and ride out the remaining three years.
OK…how do I know all of this? And is it really true? Well, let’s look at what’s happening. Henry Waxman (D-California), the bald-headed, glasses-wearing, guy that is always screaming in sound bites (I swear he’s the angriest guy in America), has decided after 30 or 40 years in the House to call it quits. He’s retiring. That says a lot. Because people that have been in the House that long, don’t want to be in the minority. Newly elected reps, who haven’t had a lot of experience are just happy to be there…but once you cross the 20 year mark, especially if you’ve been in the majority, it’s no fun any more. I look for more “high profile” people on the Democratic side to step down between now and say, June.
The DNC is changing it’s focus. Not too long ago, they were all talking about taking back the House because the GOP stepped in dog crap when they shut down the government. Remember that back in October? Nobody else does either! That’s what I mean by 9 months being a lifetime. Anyway, they’re putting their eggs into trying to hold on to the Senate. And the mere fact that Obama is going to use his pen and his phone more in the coming years, tells me, he’s not confident he’s going to have anything to work with on Capitol Hill.
Now…let’s take a look at why all this is happening. It’s nothing the GOP is doing. It’s all because the Dems are stepping on themselves. They’re scared because of Obamacare. They’re losing votes because of it, and will lose a lot of seats because of it. And there’s nothing they can do. There IS something the GOP can do. They can screw it up. If John Boehner (R-OH) decides to push through immigration reform, especially Paul Ryan’s plan, which includes a basic amnesty though it’s not being called that…then the GOP will step in it bigtime. Avoid immigration reform until after the 2014 mid-terms and deal with it next session. That shows Obama has no power, and no guts, and he’s all hot air.
If the GOP in the House tackle immigration, they’re giving the Dems an issue to run on besides Obamacare. The GOP should push their healthcare plan that they released in the Senate the other day, compare it to Obamacare, and get the hell out of the way and let the Dems make fools of themselves. My fear is they won’t. GOP loves to screw it up.
The first big test on whether they’re going to screw it up comes later this month. We’re going to see if the GOP adds a string attached to the debt ceiling bill. What they need to do is come up with something substantial, that will have Democrat support in order to make it fly. Two options are out there. First, go after the Iranian Sanctions as a rider to the debt ceiling and force Obama to veto it because of his “line in the sand” with Congress. Second, attach a rider that does away with the insurance company bailout for Obamacare if they lose money. It’s the most costly thing in the current bill. Obama can’t veto that saying that it changes the law because HE has changed the law already dozens of times.
If the GOP caves and sends a clean debt ceiling bill to the White House, they’ll cave on immigration in the House, and they’ll end up losing when they should win big in November. Mark my words!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!