For the past three months we’ve been like the Indianapolis 500 in early May. We’re leading up to the start, but it’s been slow. There’s been rain, there’s been days of sunshine where the cars got out and tested, and got tuned up. We’re almost ready now for the time trials so we can have a look at the starting positions. And by next January, the flag will drop and the race will start.
Up until now, none of it really matters. Oh, there’s been a lot of conjecture, a lot of speculation, a lot of talk. Actually, a lot of blather. None of it means anything. Because so far, the only thing that has meant something is that Ted Cruz entered the field officially. This month, it’s going to start getting busy.
Look for the names at the top of the polls to get in. Oh, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, they’ll all get in. And you’ll get a lot of the also rans throwing their hat into the ring as well. The Chris Christie’s, Donald Trumps (just kidding!), Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and maybe a surprise or two.
In the end, there are only going to be two or three names that matter. The first ones in rarely matter in the end anyway. Usually they are just there either as placeholders, or they’re newbies (like Ted Cruz), trying to get added name recognition for themselves. Overall, they don’t really matter.
What you’re eventually going to see I believe is probably fifteen or so of the twenty to twenty-five names that have been bandied about actually declare. I don’t expect Trump to do it, he’s got to disclose too much personal information, and it means that you won’t have Celebrity Apprentice anymore because of the campaign laws. I don’t think you’re going to see Mike Pence in. I don’t think John Kasich is going to get in, though he might be considered a vice presidential nominee because he’s from Ohio. Same would be said for Marco Rubio. While I like Rubio a lot, he doesn’t have the gravitas to pull it off himself. He’s much better as a vice presidential candidate. He can still help out with Florida (a swing state), and the Hispanic vote, but he doesn’t have to do anything to show his “executive leadership”, which he has none. And I think you’re already seeing Rand Paul’s support starting to ebb away from him. He talks a great game, just like his dad, Ron did, but in the end, people will not fall for the whole libertarian philosophy.
No, in the end you’re going to have a battle between Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. If Walker gets the nod, look for Rubio to be his running mate. If Bush is tabbed, he should go with Kasich to be the VP nominee. That way you’re going to either flip Wisconsin altogether and pick up Florida, or you’re going to take Florida and Ohio out of play. Two very smart moves for the GOP this time around.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!