Chris Cillizza, writing in the Washington Post had a very interesting article the other day. It bears repeating to some degree, because in political terms, Chris is absolutely right. It’s much too late for Joe Biden, or Al Gore, or anyone else to jump into the Democratic race for the nomination and win. There are several good reasons for that, and only one path to victory if Biden does decide to win…and that deal was outlined in my blogs over the last couple of days.
Biden is really late. Yes, there’s a full five months when he gets in and when the primaries start, and yes, you can do a lot of damage in five months (just ask Bernie Sanders). But there are several problems…big boulders in Biden’s way.
- The money is already spoken for. If Biden gets in the race in early September, he’s going to be $45 million behind Hillary in fundraising. And he can’t go back to the guys he tapped last time he ran…they’ve already signed on to Clinton’s machine. And they’ve drained their wallets for her. A Biden PAC can certainly make up some ground, but it’s not going to be enough.
- The talent is already gone. Hillary has known for years that 2016 was going to be “her year” to run. Let’s face it…it’s now or never for her. If she decided not to run, she’d be too old in four years. So starting when she left the secretary of states office, and decided to start doing yoga routines on her personal email server, she started putting talent together in the early states. She’s got all of the talent…or at least the cream of the crop. Sure, some could peel off and head to Biden’s camp, but it would be a few. She’s still got a lot of the pool.
- He can never catch up in organization. There’s just no way that any candidate at this point in time, that hasn’t gotten a team on the ground in every county in Iowa is going to do squat there. You have to be up and running and visiting Iowa on a weekly basis…and not just the big cities, but everybody’s living room. Biden is missing in action.
Historically, you need to be in the race a lot earlier than 15 months out. This is pretty much a two-year campaign now a days. And there is no way to get around that.
Having said that, the Democrats may be wishing they hadn’t given Hillary a coronation so early, but they are stuck with it. And while Bernie Sanders may hang around to the convention, the Dems really don’t have much of a choice. Actually they have two choices. First, they can go with Hillary, who is wounded and losing blood day by day. Second they can go with Bernie Sanders, who’s an avowed socialist, which has never, ever played well in the general election.
All of that true, there is one thing that the Democrats have going in their favor. This year is a topsy-turvy year when it comes to the presidential race. Things that have never happened before are happening now. Nobody ever thought that some businessman from New York with bad hair would end up sitting on top of the polls for such a long period of time, even after he’s had gaffe upon gaffe. Whoever thought that a little-known socialist from Vermont could challenge “the most powerful woman in the world”? I’m just waiting for pigs to start flying!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!