The front-runners for both the Democratic and Republican parties have something in common. Neither is very likeable. But it’s for different reasons altogether. And in this summer of discontent as far as political antics go, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continue to lead their respective party’s race for the presidential nomination. But that seems to be about as much as they have in common.
Hillary Clinton is not a likeable figure. Now a whopping 53% of the American public find her unlikeable, which is something I talked about when she first announced her candidacy back in April. Every time Hillary is out of sight, her popularity rises. When she’s in the public view, it decreases. The reason is simple. Hillary Clinton is not a people person. She’s a policy wonk.
Donald Trump on the other hand is not a likeable figure at the moment. But it’s not because he’s not a people person. It’s because he’s bombastic and says what he thinks. 59% of Americans find Trump unlikeable. And therein lies the dilemma for both.
Unlikeable candidates most often don’t get elected to the presidency.
In fact, if you go back to the end of World War II and the 1948 presidential election, (that would be Truman and Dewey for you that don’t follow politics all the much), every single election with the exception of two was won by the candidate who had better likeability numbers. The two exceptions were in 1968 and 1972 when Richard Nixon defeated Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern. Both Humphrey and McGovern had far better likeability numbers than Nixon.
And that is why neither Hillary nor Donald will end up being their party’s nominee. I’m now really starting to think that unless Doctor Ben Carson does something stupid in the debates between now and the convention, he’s going to get the nod for the GOP. I’m still thinking it’s going to be Joe Biden, who will get in the race after watching Hillary’s numbers continue to erode, for the Democrats. Carson’s likeability rating is in the 80’s, almost unheard of! And Smilin’ Joe comes across better than any politician in the Democratic party, even Obama.
It’s a simple matter really. Hillary has way too much baggage, is not interested in campaigning for the job, which shows every time she’s on the stump, and is terrible at it when she is. Trump is getting all of his support among white voters at this point. His unlikeables among Hispanics and Blacks are falling daily. His disapprovals among blacks is at 79%, that would be an historic low for a winning candidate should he win the nomination and the White House. Oddly enough, Blacks and Hispanics are Hillary’s strong suit. And the problem is, they are the two groups that are least likely to vote.
Unless there is some radical change in the next six months, Hillary will fall out of the lead and probably end up losing both Iowa and New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders. I would be surprised if Sanders wins in South Carolina, though he could do the job in Nevada. That means Hillary would go into Super Tuesday with only one primary win under her rather large belt. Not a good showing for someone who six months ago was expecting a coronation!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!