I will be the first to admit that polls at this point in a presidential race, a whopping 14 months ahead of us going to the polls and actually voting, are pretty much useless. Remember back eight years ago when John McCain was the GOP nominee against Barack Obama? There was a different GOP leader every single week. And one by one they all dropped out, made foolish mistakes that even I know better not to make, and spent all their money.
So, it’s with that in mind that the unthinkable has finally happened. It’s taken all summer, and probably 200 polls, but in a head to head contest…Donald Trump has now taken the lead over all of the Democrats.
The GOP front-runner that everybody, including yours truly felt would be dust by this time, has turned this into a horse race. Now, It may be an anomaly. It may be that they pollsters at SurveyUSA, which did the polling asked just the right people, but head-to-head, Donald Trump now beats Hillary Clinton 45 to 40%. In late June Clinton beat Trump 59 to 34%. In July it was Clinton still up 57 to 38% And in August, Clinton still led 52 to 43%. Something is happening here.
If you’re like me, you probably think that Hillary is going to self-destruct long before the Democratic convention and won’t win the nomination (I’m really a fan of her winning it…she’d be the easiest candidate to beat!). Well, Trump also beats Bernie Sanders 44 to 40%. He beats Joe Biden 44 to 42%. They even threw Al Gore into the mix, and Trump beat him 44 to 41%.
So at this point, I must say what I think I’ve only said one other time in Desert Musings…
I was wrong.
Donald Trump, unless he screws up big time is going to be the GOP nominee, just like he’s said from day one. And to be honest with you, unless the Democrats can do a much better job fielding candidates than what they’ve done so far in this “year of Hillary coronation”, they don’t stand a chance.
Of course, I think back and look at 2008 at this time in the process. Hillary was still destined to be the president. Rudy Giuliani was supposed to go up against her from the Republican side, and neither one of them made it to the convention. But something is vastly different this time. This doesn’t have the same feel. It’s kind of like 2008 was made of plastic and this one is made of leather. You can just tell it’s different.
It’s got all of the pundits in DC scratching their heads. It’s got the voters engaged (which is good). There’s a huge group of people who appears to be growing for Bernie Sanders, and a huge group that certainly is growing for Donald Trump. He’s topped 30% in the GOP field for the first time in the last week.
And Hillary keeps slipping. Oh, she’s out there smiling, saying she wants to wipe her server with a cloth or some stupid remarks, but she knows. And you can tell by looking at her…she’s pissed about the whole thing. More about that tomorrow. Until then…
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!