Could the worst summer in Hillary Clinton’s life be almost over? It appears that may be the case. Last month, the Arkansas Princess was leading Bernie Sanders among Democrats with 42% of Dems supporting her for nomination. Sanders comes in with 24% and Vice President Joe Biden has 22%. The others don’t matter…never have.
That is a marked change from last month when Clinton had 37% of the Democrats’ support. Sanders was second with 27%, and Joe Biden with 20%.
The remarkable thing for Hillary is, she actually picked up 5% in the latest CNN/ORC poll, but it DOES have a 5% margin of error, so she could have actually stayed flat. Still staying flat in a summer that’s seen her go from the high 60’s in support to the mid 30’s isn’t bad at all.
The tricky thing for Clinton is she needs to get Biden out of the picture. If Joe Biden comes into the race, almost all of his 22% comes from Hillary Clinton. Almost none of it comes from Bernie Sanders. That means that with Biden out of the running, Hillary could actually go back up to the 60’s.
So, what does all of this mean? It seems to me that the Democrats are going to do what the GOP had done for the last two presidential cycles…hold their nose and vote for the person that’s leading. That’s what Republicans did with both John McCain and Mitt Romney. Both turned out to be terrible candidates and made horrendous mistakes in their campaign that cost them the election (not that either were that electable in the first place).
The GOP has several notches on its belt over the Democrats this time around anyway. It’s very difficult to win three consecutive terms as president. Neither party does it very easily. The GOP did it with George HW Bush and Ronald Reagan, but you have to actually go back to FDR and Harry Truman for the Dems. That’s a long time! Second, there’s the economy stupid. Most Americans don’t feel that Obama has handled the economy with the aplomb needed to turn it around, and do it quickly. Rather than let the market take care of itself (which most economists that are worth more than a gumball would agree to), he tried to get government involved where it shouldn’t have been. Remember the $800 billion stimulus for all of those “shovel-ready jobs” that ended up hiring a grand total of one person? Yeah…that worked wonders.
Third, Hillary is tied to the Obama administration, and not in a good way. Fourth, she has proven to the American people through this email scandal that refuses to die that she has a problem telling the truth. She’s untrustworthy, and I can’t remember the last time someone untrustworthy and a convicted liar actually won the White House. It HAS happened, I know, I just can’t remember when.
Finally, there has been one exception to this rule. The most likeable candidate wins. The exception was Richard Nixon against both Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and against George McGovern in 1972. Other than that, dating back to Truman/Dewey (when Dewey was perceived to be the most likeable), this predictor has held valid.
Will Hillary win the Democratic nomination? I wish my crystal ball were working this morning. But it’s not. That’ll teach me for going with the cheap Chinese-made crystal balls!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!