Sometimes you get a hunch, or a gut-feeling that something is going to happen. My grandmother always swore that she had ESP and could tell the future. Other times you can read the tea leaves like you’re reading the pages of your local newspaper. Either way, you figure out the future before most others do. It’s an eerie feeling. And it happened to me last night.
The Republicans WILL win the White House next year.
The next logical question that you’re going to ask is “How do you KNOW that?” Well, here is the reasoning behind my sleepless night in the desert
The Republicans have history on their side. I have said it before and I’ll say it again. The American people are fickle. They fall in love with the Republicans, and after two terms, want to see the Democrats in power. Then the Dems take over and two terms later the GOP is back. Well, it’s been two terms. It happens like clockwork with only a couple of exceptions. The last time the GOP got three terms was after Ronald Reagan when George HW Bush won. He beat Michael Dukakis, who had to be one of the worst candidates the Democrats have run in recent memory. For the Democrats though, you have to go back to World War II. Of course, FDR did it all on his own, but they actually got five terms in a row with Truman finishing out FDR’s fourth term, and then winning re-election for himself. Nobody since that time on the Democrats’ side has been able to win more than two terms in a row.
Second, the field is deeper on the GOP side. Not just in term of numbers, but in terms of quality. The Dems have Hillary, Bernie, Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chafee. Now, Sanders has a lot of experience in the Senate, but the O’Malley and Chafee have been governors, giving them executive leadership experience. And Webb and Chafee have both served in the senate. Only Hillary has been a cabinet member…which doesn’t account for much. The GOP has more current and former governors, and more current and former senators. Their leadership experience, political experience, and savvy is immense compared to the Democrats.
Finally, as was always said in “Jerry McGuire”, you need to follow the money. Let’s look at that. The New York Times had an interesting piece that basically says 158 families have donated half the total money raised to date on both sides. There’s been over $176 million raised in total. The interesting thing is where those 158 families are placing their bets. 138 of them are betting on the GOP to win. Only 20 have sided with the Democrats. Now, Hillary has raised the most money of any individual candidate, and led the field in the third quarter with $28 million raised (Bernie Sanders was second among all candidates with $26 million raised). Ben Carson led the GOP with $20 million raised out of 17 candidates. But it’s easy to see that collectively, the GOP has the money. And in politics, money usually wins.
Let’s take one final look at something called “burn rate”. How fast are the Democrats going through their money. Hillary Clinton has the largest staff, the largest network, and the most expensive everything. On the GOP side, actually, everybody is pretty thrifty. You’d imagine that Donald Trump would burn through his money the quickest, but that’s not true. He’s only spent $2 million so far. And he’s got $10 billion in assets that he can use. That’s about 10 times the amount Bobo Obama and Mitt Romney spent on their campaigns in 2012.
Overall, the edge goes to the GOP. And you’ll notice. I didn’t even mention Joe Biden, or email scandals!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!