All of the pundits, all of the media nuts, all of the “people in the know”, hell, even I said Donald Trump wouldn’t last. He’d blow out like a day-old birthday cake. And he didn’t. And just when the Republican establishment looked at poll numbers saying that 75% of Americans felt he could actually win the nomination, and over 50% actually felt he could win the White House, something strange happened.
Donald Trump started to backslide.
First, he started getting beat by two polls in Iowa. It was single digits, and it was Ben Carson that was beating him both times. That expanded yesterday to four polls, the latest two showing him down by double digits. Today, a New York Times/CBS News Poll showed that for the first time since they started taking polls in July, Donald Trump is not the front-runner nationally. Let me repeat that:
Donald Trump is NOT the front-runner for the GOP nomination nationally.
Ben Carson is. OK, it is 26% Carson and 22% Trump…and it’s still within the margin of error, but it’s a 7.5 on the Richter Scale. It’s huge. And it means one thing. Trump is going to forget about Jeb Bush and start laying all of his fire at the feet of Ben Carson.
Trump cried like a schoolgirl who forgot her lunch when the first two polls came out…mocking Carson’s religion, and then later, walking it back to, “I don’t know anything about 7th Day Adventists”. His reason for slipping to second was simple. The two polls (Des Moines Register and Quinnipiac) don’t like him very much. Apparently, neither to the people of Iowa.
Look, I have said from the start there are way too many people in the race to get on one person’s side at this point. Of course, I said that right after I said that I thought Scott Walker would be a great president, and how’d that turn out for me? The big deal here is that there is going to be movement early on in this thing. None of it really matters to anyone except Fox News, CNN, and apparently me. Okay…It also apparently matters to The Donald. Other than that? Nope.
What is interesting is to contrast this election cycle with that of four years, and even eight years ago. Last time around, we had a leader du jour in the polls. If you led for two weeks, you were the Golden Boy. Not so much here. There’s been movement, but not at the top once Carson got his legs working. I’m not sure either Carson nor Trump has the staying power to be there in six months, but we will certainly see.
One thing that is for certain…is that the Summer of Trump is over. Hey, if the GOP learned anything from the guy it should be that he knows how to get free media coverage that the rest of the field obviously doesn’t understand how to achieve. They need to take a lesson from that.
And just for the record, Marco Rubio was third with 8% in the latest national poll…Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina were tied for fourth with 7%, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich all came in next with 4%, and the rest are the bath water that need to go anyway.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!