In the past, I’ve outlined why I think the Republicans are really better poised than the Democrats to take the White House this year. Most of it has nothing to do with actual candidates, but more with historical prospective. But there is something brewing out there that gets me thinking that there IS something to do with candidates, and it’s something that the Democrats should be worried about.
The first thing that hit me was a Rasmussen Poll that suggested more Republicans than Democrats are engaged with this election season, and are more likely to vote come November. This is a very key indicator as to who will win elections…probably even more-so than actual candidates running. And it’s for a very simple reason. If you don’t get the vote out…if people don’t drag themselves off their couches and get to the polls, the candidate of that party, either party, has no chance of being elected. That was the problem Mitt Romney had in 2012. He lost, not really because he lost the Hispanic vote, though I know that’s a popular Democrat point. He lost simply because he did not excite the Republicans enough to come and support him. Had he done so. Had he matched the percentage of Democrats that came out to vote for Obama, he would have won.
So, let’s take a look at that factor. Republican voters are much more likely, according to Rasmussen, to come out and vote than Democrats are at this point. And again, it’s “at this point” that matters. That can change. But so far, the GOP is much more engaged and interested in the election than Democrats. What’s important to also note is why. 58% of all voters say they’re excited about the election, 37% say they’ve had enough with it and are ready for it to be over. When you break that down by party, it’s a stark difference. 71% of GOP voters are excited about the election, 25% want it to be over. 50% of Democrats are excited, but 44% want it to be over. That is a very telling statistic!
Why the huge difference? In two words, Donald Trump. The Democrats are aware of who their candidate is going to be, and while Democrats find Hillary a lot more likeable and trustworthy than independents and Republicans do, they don’t find her exciting and motivating. Let’s call that “Mitt Romney Syndrome”. Trump on the other hand gets scads of people regardless where he goes. He fills football stadiums. Hillary Clinton speaks to no more than 200 people at a stop. Hell, even Bill Clinton had trouble filling a high school gym in New Hampshire the other day. It was half empty!
Hillary Clinton just isn’t exciting. She’s like lukewarm coffee or white wall paper. There’s nothing exciting about her. Trump on the other hand is a showman. He’s PT Barnum. Now, I’m not saying that makes him a great president, I’m not about to go there. What I am saying is, he’s exciting people about the GOP race. And THAT is something. In fact, there are people all over the country, Democrats and Independents that are taking the “Switch & Ditch” pledge. They are ditching the Democrats in favor not of the GOP…but of Trump. He’s more of a “man of the people” and Hillary seems to be a “woman of the Democrats”. That could spell a big difference come November IF Trump is the nominee!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!