I laughed when Little Debbie Wasserman-Schultz announced last summer that there would only be six Democrat debates leading up to the Iowa Caucuses. I mean, how in hell could anybody get a grasp on the ever-changing, always-charging candidates in just 12 hours? What a crock that would be! It was, of course a very lame attempt to protect Hillary Clinton, who stumbles in a debate like Otis in The Andy Griffith Show.
Fast forward seven months to this past Saturday night (yeah…another great time to have a debate…Saturday night opposite NFL playoffs!). The 15 people that watched the debate were treated to something a little extra…extra time. The moderators couldn’t come up with enough questions to fill the entire two hours, and for the second time, the debate ended early…this one a whopping 7 minutes early. So, maybe what is being said is that Little Debbie is owed an apology. Maybe six debates WERE enough. In fact, maybe six debates were too much to begin with!
Of course, it’s about this time that Hillary Clinton is wishing she had more debates, because she would like to talk about anything besides emails. She’d like the public to forget the fact that she’s being investigated by the FBI (a fact she often says is a criminal investigation, but not about her…though we all know different). And it’s about this time that Hillary, while wishing the whole campaign thing would just go away because it’s becoming too reticent of 2008 when she had a 17% lead over Barack Obama two weeks before Iowa and finished third. Today, her once mighty lead in the Hawkeye State has vanished and Sanders is being touted.
The fact that Bernie Sanders is surging late shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. He’s out-drawn Clinton at campaign stops from the very beginning, drawing thousands to her hundred or so. When you take into account the number of donors he’s had versus her, he skunks her. He’s had more individual campaign donors than any candidate in history, of either party. And when you consider that he has all but matched her in quarterly donations over the past six months, it’s pretty damn impressive. How could you not think that he’s going to do well in Iowa as well as New Hampshire?
Now, the pundits all say that once they hit South Carolina and Nevada, that Sanders is toast. He can’t compete with Hillary in the south and in the urban areas, because he does poorly among blacks and Hispanics. Well, I have news for them…its closer than they think.
Sanders and Clinton are virtually tied. Yes, if you go to Real Clear Politics website, it shows Clinton with a lead in Iowa, but you have to take into account that one poll, a robotic telephone poll held on last Wednesday by Gravis showed Clinton with a 21 point lead. That has skewed the average. Everything else in Iowa and everything else nationally except the NBC poll that just came out shows the race in a margin of error. The NBC poll, by the way, was a national poll and showed Clinton up by 25 points. It’s an out-lander poll in that it varies greatly from all of the other polls taken the previous week. And it skews the average of national polls. Now, if that continues, then yes, Clinton would have the edge. We’ll just have to wait and see!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!