In my pea-sized mind that has been dusted with the debris of the desert, there is one over-riding fact in this year’s presidential campaign…Hillary Clinton is not going to be president. Now, I know that is running counter to a lot of the pundits and pollsters out there. But in my mind, she can’t win. Not that I don’t want her to win or that she shouldn’t win…she CAN’T win. Here’s how she loses.
Hillary has an uphill battle with the Democrats’ nomination. Bernie Sanders is surging and feeling good about his chances in Iowa as well as New Hampshire. He’s also picking up some ground in Nevada. And Hillary seems to be resting all of her laurels on the “southern blockade” strategy, where Hispanics and blacks have traditionally not gone for someone like Sanders. That would give Hillary the edge; win the urban areas, win the south, win the nomination. But Sanders seems to be doing ok with blacks, at least in South Carolina. And while the initial feel was to test him in Iowa, now it’s looking like the South Carolina Primary at the end of February is going to be the gauntlet. If he wins that, it’ll be a clean sweep to the nomination. I’m not so sure he can do that.
Let’s say Hillary wins the nomination, and let’s say for grins and giggles that she faces off against Trump. In Hillary’s world, that’s the ideal match up. In mine, she’s courting disaster. Trump has proven over 16 times that regardless of the opponent, he can defeat them as easily as he did Rosie O’Donnell. But he’s still going to have to win votes and do “electoral math” in order to get there. Here’s how:
If Trump can turn Virginia, Florida, and Ohio from Obama’s win in 2012, and pick up just one other state that has four or more electoral votes, he wins. That’s it. Now, the question is, can he do it? The answer is yes. Pollsters are finding that even people that were strong Obama supporters in the past (voting for him in both 2008 and 2012) are willing to give Trump a chance. The heaviest group in that subset is blacks. Hispanics will be a little tougher because of Trump’s stand on immigration, but even they are willing to go along with him if he softens his stand on the border. He won’t of course, but he doesn’t need ALL of the Hispanics to win…just those in Miami and Orlando (Miami Hispanics are more apt to be more conservative than Orlando). Get the blacks in Virginia and Ohio, and turn two of three Ohio Democrat strongholds (those would be Cleveland, Toledo, and Columbus), and you have yourself another swing-state in your corner. Virginia will be a little tougher. Northern Virginia is comprised of government workers, and Trump is all about a smaller government. That means they’d be voting for a guy that is going to get rid of their job. But if he does that, he only needs one more state like New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada and the election is his.
Simple math….from a simple mind!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!