Well, we know one thing for sure. What happens in Vegas today won’t stay in Vegas. That’s because the Republican caucus is today. And it’s expected that Donald Trump will romp his way through the field. Now, if he does that, and if Hillary wins South Carolina this weekend, it’s going to set up a Trump/Hillary main event for November. Is that what most die-hard Republicans want? Probably not. Is that what most Democrats really want? Well, that depends on the establishment candidates, and Director Comey’s decision to refer or not refer Hillary to the Justice Department for indictment.
Here’s why I believe that the primary season is over. First of all, a Trump win in Nevada means three rather big wins in a row (he’s leading by double digits in Nevada). That gives him an edge going into Super Tuesday where he’s also leading in all but one state. Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will all be voting on the Republican side. You can toss in American Samoa on the Democrats’ side, although Colorado’s 37 delegates for the GOP will remain uncommitted by state law. The only state that Trump doesn’t lead in for Super Tuesday balloting is Texas, where Ted Cruz (home state) is up by 8 points according to Real Clear Politics.
If that holds, Trump has a pretty insurmountable lead in delegates, and there are still going to be five candidates still vying for delegates (Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Carson). While Carson and Kasich really don’t have a chance for anything, they are stopping Cruz or Rubio from competing with Trump. It has to be a two person race now between Trump and either Cruz or Rubio heading into Super Tuesday for The Donald to lose the nomination. Pure and simple it’s looking more and more like the GOP nominates Donald Trump.
So, does it really matter what happens in Vegas? Well, it does only because it’s a three state winning streak for Trump. He gets next week off to jet around the various Super Tuesday states and solidify his lead. Other than that, no. It is pretty much over. And the really interesting thing is Trump has done it on $25 million. That’s less than Jeb! Bush spent in South Carolina alone! The reason is, Trump know how to get free media attention. He just goes to a campaign site and says something outlandish.
The big thing to understand here is Hillary Clinton has had trouble so far putting Bernie Sanders away. Sanders is nothing compared to Trump. I can’t for the life of me seeing anyone but the most strident liberal voting for Clinton if she gets referred to Justice, regardless what they do. And Trump is supposed to take up to 20% of the Democrat vote in the general election! If that happens, Hillary doesn’t have a chance.
I really never expected both sides to be wrapped up by Super Tuesday, and technically I don’t think they will. But for all intents and purposes it will be over for the primary by March 2nd. We’ll have a breather this spring, while Clinton and Trump campaign, and then we’ll have the conventions, and the fireworks will begin. In the end, I’d be very surprised if Donald Trump wasn’t sitting in the White House. And don’t think for a minute that those Republicans that have said they’d never vote for Trump will stay home. When they see that the option to Trump is Hillary? They’ll come out in droves!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!