At the last Democrats’ debate on Univision, Hillary Clinton was asked point blank the question I’ve had for the last year…”If you’re indicted for your email scandal, are you going to leave the race?” It was pointed, it was blunt, and I actually congratulate Jorge Ramos for having the stones to ask it. Want to know a dirty little secret? Ramos’ daughter actually works on the Clinton campaign. So it was a double dose of really good questioning!
Hillary’s answer if you missed it was something along the lines of, “It’s not going to happen…and I’m not even going to answer that question!” My, how indignant one can get when backed into a corner. Now, let’s examine a few things here shall we?
Loretta Lynch has let it slip over the last few days that the Justice Department doesn’t actually HAVE to make a decision on Clinton. They don’t NEED to follow the FBI’s recommendation if they feel there are unmitigating circumstances. That would lead one to believe that the Obama administration is not going to indict Hillary once FBI Director James Comey comes forward with a referral to indict. The question is does it matter? I say it doesn’t. Look, Democrats don’t care if she’s indicted or not. They’ll vote for her regardless. Oh, there may be some that are going to peel away and go to Trump…Pennsylvania is already seeing an unheard of registration for their primary of Democrats switching to Republican. I’m not sure if this is the John McCain thing all over again, where they switch to HOPE Trump wins so he’s easy to beat, or if they actually support him. We won’t know that until November. But the fact remains that most Democrats won’t care if Hillary is indicted. If she is the nominee, she’ll get their vote.
That leaves Republicans and Independents. Figure that 20% of the Democrats are going to flip to Trump, at least that’s the number I’ve seen. Hillary has to make that up somewhere. Even if it’s 6%, she’s going to have trouble doing it. Republicans and Independents are far less likely to vote for her if she’s indicted than a Dem is. And that puts her in trouble. So it doesn’t matter if she is actually indicted or not. If she is, it’s a death blow. If she isn’t, 2/3 of the country will see it as a partisan smear by Obama to keep her as a candidate, and most of that 2/3 will not follow Hillary. Either way, IF a referral comes out from the FBI to indict, and with 150 agents taking a year to work on this, I highly suspect that would be the case (I also happen to have a very good friend who is one of the 150!), she is going to be a very wounded candidate.
Does that disqualify her from winning in November? Nope. If Donald Trump is the nominee on the GOP side and ends up trashing the GOP at the convention and can’t bring people together, then getting Democrats to come over to his side may not be enough. It’ll be like Mitt Romney all over again. But that one would be on the GOP for sitting home. I blame the GOP today for Obama’s re-election. Had they actually gone out and voted for the BETTER candidate, Romney would be president today and you wouldn’t have all the problems we’ve had in the last three and a quarter years!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!