The Trump Electoral Problem

John Kasich, the candidate that hadn’t really done much of anything in the primaries, cut down Donald Trump at the knees last night in Ohio. Oh, I know…there is no possible way that Kasich can win the nomination. He’d need to win something like 126% of the remaining delegates. But the problem for Donald Trump (who had a decent night by the way), was that he can’t get there either. It was going to be a slog to get there even by winning Ohio. It’s even tougher by losing it to Kasich.

Someone did the math on TV yesterday. Now, math wasn’t my strong suit in school. In fact I took two math classes in college because I had to. Elementary Education Math 101 and 102. Instead of teaching teachers how to teach math, they basically TAUGHT elementary math. It was right up my alley. So, I won’t bore you with the statistics of it all. Suffice to say, had Trump won Ohio, he would have needed 56% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic clinching number for the nomination. Without the state in his column, he now needs 63% of the remaining delegates. The problem that Trump faces is there are only six states with winner-take-all prizes.

There are 921 delegates left to distribute between Trump, Cruz, and Kasich with Rubio dropping out. Now, Rubio’s 168 delegates will most likely go to Cruz. Ted has 396, so adding Rubio’s to his total, he now would come up with 564. Trump has 621, so this becomes a very close race. You need 1,237 delegates for the nomination. Trump needs 616 of the 921, Cruz needs 673. Of the 20 states left (including American Samoa which has 9 delegates that are unbound), there are 550 delegates available in winner-take-all states. 371 delegates will be available on a proportional basis. Cruz or Trump, either one needs to sweep the WTA states and do well enough to pick up the remaining delegates. Tough road! Probably not one that will happen for either candidate.

The whole point here is that the GOP is heading to a brokered convention. With Kasich’s win in Ohio, it pretty much became a wide-open, Wild West shootout from here on in. And anything can happen. Yes, Trump has won the most states, but if Cruz can a) take over the vast majority of Rubio’s delegates, and b) do really, really well from this point on, he has a chance to go to the convention with the notion that he’s every bit as strong as Trump. What that does to a Trump third-party run? That’s anybody’s guess. It’s going to make for some interesting TV this summer, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. After all, how many episodes of “Big Brother” can one person really stand to watch?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

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2 thoughts on “The Trump Electoral Problem

  1. Desert, you realize Trump will win a majority of the remaining States and maybe come up short on delegates because of allotted vs. winner take all States. That said, winning a majority of the States and delegates, but not enough to secure the nomination, Reince Preibus and the Establishment will find a way to steal the nomination from him. Saw Ben Ginsberg, Republican party election lawyer this AM on TV. He stated that each convention has rules, but the impending convention does not have the rules yet as they are passed there by the Rules committee. If and when Trump loses the nomination, this is how it will be done. The art of the deal by the Stop Trump movement.

    Also saw that Kasich has retained the floor leaders for Reagan and Ford from the 1976 convention. This will be nasty.

    Glad I laid in a huge supply of popcorn and top grade Belgian beer because this will be the best free entertainment on TV in July.

    Care to join me for some viewing? I do change channels to get everyone’s opinion on what’s going on.

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