I’ve written a lot over the past several months about Hillary Clinton’s possible stumble to the White House and how it involves the pending criminal referral to the DOJ by the FBI and their investigation into her corruption and email server scandals. But you want to know what is really going to derail her? It may be those scandals, but it also may be the thing she least suspects.
She’s not going to get the support of her biggest strength. She’s not getting the same support with blacks as she was hoping.
Unless something dramatically changes over what we have seen in the primaries versus what could happen in the general election, she is going to be in trouble. Remember, Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and 2012 because he had record numbers (especially in 2008) of black voters, many of whom hadn’t voted in a presidential election before. Obama excited his base and they came out in record numbers. Hillary is finding that a difficult act to follow.
Here are the numbers: In Ohio, only 40% of the blacks went to the polls last Tuesday. In Florida it was 38%, and in North Carolina it was 34%. Those numbers are about 35% lower across the board than when Obama was running. And it’s easy to see why. He’s black, she’s not. But Obama was elected because of the black vote. If Hillary wants to be elected, she’s going to have to do well with that group. She SHOULD be doing very well with them against Bernie Sanders who isn’t known to be as friendly with blacks as Clinton is, and she’s winning their support against him…but it’s not by the numbers she needs. The blacks that are showing up to the polls ARE voting for her, the problem is, not enough of them are showing up. And therein lies the problem Hillary is going to be facing in November.
Hillary has always had a problem in exciting the base because she’s just not an exciting candidate. Sanders has drawn huge crowds and really pumped his supporters up during the campaign, which is why he’s been able to hang around for so long. Clinton has had much smaller crowds, much fewer individual supporters, and actually in 2016 has raised a lot less money than Sanders. What’s going to happen when she runs into a media mogul like Donald Trump, who not only gets the biggest crowds of anybody out there, but is self-funded, and knows how to control the media every step of the way?
I get it that Trump isn’t that popular and that up to 40% of the GOP say they wouldn’t vote for him. I also get it that he’s going to peel off 20% of the Democrats vote according to all of the analysis I’ve seen, and he’s going to bring new voters that haven’t been involved in the process before. That’s a remarkably large difference than what Clinton is banking on. She’s looking at an old, 25 year old playbook that worked against a candidate or two that weren’t media savvy and didn’t have fresh ideas. Trump is actually looking at changing the electoral map. If he’s able to swing Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin his way (as he claims), then the ballgame is going to be over before it starts. Oh…and it WILL be I believe the first time in history that both major party political candidates will be from the same state. Only difference is, Trump is more popular in New York City than Hillary is! That’s going to be a major problem for her!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!