Let’s say for grins and giggles that Donald Trump faces off against Hillary Clinton in November. And let’s just say that the polls at this point are right, and Hillary leads Trump by 9 points. What does the actual REAL numbers show…the Electoral Math if you will.
Let’s run down the Electoral Math and see which candidate could win…
Alaska has always been conservative and will fall into the Trump category. Most likely will Alabama. Arizona would become more of a toss-up state with the heavy Hispanic population, but should fall for Trump overall. The only real areas of Democrats are Tucson (because of the University of Arizona), and Flagstaff, as well as inner city Phoenix. Arkansas could go for Clinton because she’s the Arkansas Princess.
California will actually be in play this fall. Trump is really popular with a lot of celebrity-types, and knows the people of Cali very well. He may just cut into the Clinton lead in that state. Whether it’s enough to stop a Democrat from winning is the big question. Let’s put this in the maybe category!
Trump will do well in Colorado. He will also show stronger in New England than any Republican since Ronald Reagan. Put Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, New Hampshire into Trump’s category. Clinton would still win Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Trump will win his “second home” of Florida handedly. He’s well liked down there as was evidenced by him whomping Marco Rubio. Clinton will win DC, and Hawaii. Trump will take Georgia (even though Hillary does better with blacks at this point). Idaho goes to Trump, and here’s where it gets interesting. Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and yes, even Illinois could very well go to Trump. The reason? TPP. In a weird twist, the Democrat is for a world-wide trade agreement and the Republican is against it. That will play very well in the Midwest. Trump could sweep those states, as well as Wisconsin because of it. Clinton will most likely keep Minnesota. Also in the Midwest, Trump picks up Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Kentucky and Louisiana both go to Trump, again because of trade and energy policies.
Maryland is a solid Democrat state, so give that to Clinton. Mississippi will go to Trump as it’s far more conservative. Missouri probably will go to Trump, but for grins, let’s say the St. Louis area comes through for Hillary and we give it to her. Montana and Nevada are both strong for Trump. He’s probably the only Republican that could ever win Nevada, but Clark County and Las Vegas loves him!
We left out New Jersey and New York. Trump is well liked in New York City, and the rest of the state (other than Long Island) is more conservative. Trump takes New York. And he probably will take New Jersey as well.
Let’s give North Carolina to Hillary on the off-chance she can pull it out. They went for Obama in 2012. North Dakota goes for Trump…it’s far more conservative than its neighbor to the south. South Carolina goes for Trump, but South Dakota goes for Clinton. Oregon is Clinton country all the way, as is Washington State. For laughs, let’s throw Tennessee to Clinton. Texas is strongly in Trump’s camp, as is Utah.
Virginia will be a fun state to watch. They went for Obama in both 2008 and 2012, and I see no reason for them to switch. Trump is hated in DC, and that’s where the bulk of northern Virginians work. It’s a Clinton state. Meanwhile, West Virginia goes to Trump solely because of coal. Wyoming also goes to Clinton…after all…that’s where Dick Cheney lives!
Let’s make sure we give Guam, Marianas Islands, and Puerto Rico to Clinton. They usually go Democrat anyway.
Add ‘em up and we see that even without California, Trump has 342 electoral votes. That would leave Clinton with 197 (and that would be giving her California). Interesting how Trump would indeed change the Electoral map on this one, huh?
Carry on world…you’re dismissed….almost
I know there are a few of you that will dispute some of my facts…that’s why I threw several states to Clinton that probably will actually go to Trump. I called it an “evening out factor”. Enjoy!