It wasn’t the whitewash that either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton wanted last night. Both were hoping for a sweep of the states up for grabs. The GOP had Utah and Arizona on the table, Democrats also had to pick up Idaho (where the GOP had already had that one). As it turns out, Donald Trump ended up adding to his lead, getting more than the needed 56% to get him to the nomination and splitting the states with Ted Cruz.
Hillary Clinton had a different story to tell, though she was happy. She won the state of Arizona (which is really still a Republican state, though Dems are HOPING beyond hope that it turns purple). But she got her ass handed to her in Utah and Idaho, and since the Dems don’t have “Winner Take All” states in their primary, she actually lost to Sanders, 57 to 51 in delegate count last night.
So what does all of this mean? It really means that yes, Cruz is still in it, but the percentage he needs to get to the nomination has increased slightly to about 88% of the remaining delegates. Trump is still holding needing 56% or so (rounded off). The Democrats have a huge lead for Hillary, but that’s only because of the “super delegates”. There are 712 party leaders and elected officials who love to vacation and party at the convention every four years, so they automatically get the opportunity to do so. Of those, 467 have pledged support to Clinton and 26 to Sanders. On the surface, Hillary appears to have an insurmountable lead with 1,681 delegates of the 2,383 needed. Sanders has 927. But if you were to take the 467 super delegates off Hillary’s table and add them to Sanders, you get a much different story. That actually gives Sanders a slim lead.
The reason I mention that is because IF the FBI comes out with a referral to indict, and IF (long odds on this one) Loretta Lynch actually sends the referral to a Grand Jury for indictment, those super delegates will peel away from Hillary quicker than a bobcat after a bunny rabbit. This one is NOT over yet!
On the Republican side, I’m beginning to think we’re going back to 1976. I can see a contested convention. Not a brokered convention mind you, but a contested convention. There is a big difference between the two. The contested convention is when no candidate has the required number of delegates to win the nomination. The brokered convention is when the party bosses go into their “smoke filled room” and decide who the nominee will be. If the GOP goes that route, they will ruin their party. Of course, Democrats are HOPING that Donald Trump is the nominee because they say he has more baggage and the country hates him. Well, there are a lot of folks that hate him, but if everyone hates him, how in hell is he winning all of these primaries? And let’s be honest…Hillary isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Honestly? I think that either Trump or Cruz could beat her head to head. I think either could out-debate her, and she has a ton of baggage she carries around with her. So much so that there is going to be a bellman shortage in Philly this summer.
It’s going to be an interesting year, that’s for sure!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!