Can Hillary Lose Her Home State?

Hillary Clinton is worried. Worried enough that she’s about to lose another state to Bernie Sanders, and it doesn’t appear that she even cares. Why? She’s about to lose the state of New York…her home state to the guy from Vermont that was supposed to be her sparring partner on the Road To the Final Four…er…White House. And that has the Clinton campaign dodging lamps being thrown all over the place.

Hillary spent most of this past week in her home state, which is surprising, since they don’t really vote until April 19th. She’s basically bypassing Wisconsin, which is an open primary, which she has normally done well in…and the Wyoming caucus which she normally doesn’t do as well in as that’s Sanders’ strength. What is interesting is the importance she’s placing on winning her home state. Here’s why.

Take a look at the GOP and what happens when a candidate wins or loses their home state. Ted Cruz won the state of Texas and he’s breathing down Donald Trump’s butt. Marco Rubio lost Florida and immediately suspended his campaign. That same night John Kasich won the Ohio primary, where he’s governor, and he’s playing third-wheel…against all odds six months ago. On the Democrats’ side, Bernie Sanders took 86% of the vote in his home state of Vermont. Basically, the theory goes if you can’t win your own home state, what makes you think you deserve to run for a national office? And it’s a good question.

Hillary’s problem is three-fold at this point. Actually it’s four-fold. First, she’s on a losing streak, and is getting hammered by the populace. Just the other day, when a Sanders’ supporter verbally attacked her on a rope line, she screeched, “I’m sick and tired of Bernie Sanders’ people lying about me all the time”, which is akin to the witch in Hansel and Gretel complaining about the number of calories in fat German kids. The losses are mounting, and while she did well in the south, take the Deep South out of the equation, and Sanders IS kicking her butt.

Hillary’s second problem is she’s not well liked. She’s not a people person, she doesn’t play well to crowds, she’s stodgy and stiff, and she’s a terrible ad-libber. Basically, if she were running for this office in any other time, against anyone that really had more than a modicum of a heartbeat, she’d be an afterthought.

Hillary’s third problem, and probably her most serious problem is the FBI investigation. She’s facing certain dismissal from everybody but her most staunch supporters if she gets indicted. Assuming that isn’t the case because frankly, I can’t see Bobo Obama turning on his party, even an FBI referral to the Justice Department is going to be critical to her chances for winning in November. It won’t matter with the Democrats who just want a victory…even if it’s Darth Vader running. But it will with Independents and Republicans. There’ll be very little cross over vote there.

Finally, her fourth problem is Bill. He’s proven to be a nuisance on the campaign trail. His gaffes are almost as pronounced as hers. He’s showing his age, and he’s showing that he can’t follow a script. They’ve had to walk back his remarks several times, and frankly, I don’t know who outside the Democrats’ elite really wants to see him teetering on the stage. I understand he’s “their Ronald Reagan”, which is somewhat sad when you think of it, but that’s the way it is.

Hillary needs New York. The question is, will New York need Hillary or will they see her as another carpet-bagger?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

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