OK, I will admit it. I voted for Donald Trump in the Arizona primary. I didn’t necessarily want to. I did it because of what Glenn Beck said on the campaign trail, telling an Evangelical audience in the Pacific Northwest something stupid like “God wants you to vote for Ted Cruz”. For cryin’ out loud…how in hell does Beck know what God wants us to do in an election? Does God even care? Personally on God’s to-do list, I think telling Americans who they should elect as their next president doesn’t make the top million.
Having said that, let me pose the question: Can Ted Cruz actually defeat Donald Trump at the convention? That is the $1 billion question. And the answer is, yes he most certainly can. Here’s how and why.
Though Ted Cruz lost by 20% to Donald Trump in the Arizona primary last month, Ted Cruz could very well end up with Trump’s 58 Arizona delegates at the convention. That’s because after the first ballot, if Trump doesn’t get 1,237 votes, it opens the convention wide open, and Cruz has been working Arizona extremely hard. He’s contacted all of the 58 delegates pledged to Trump and is trying to turn them over to Cruz delegates on the second ballot. Legal? Yup. Is it going to work? Well, if the current momentum shift away from The Donald is any indication, I’d say Cruz has a chance. Remember, he doesn’t have to win 1,237 delegates to win the nomination. He only has to stop Trump from doing it. And then the big question would be what would Trump’s response be?
Lately, Trump has thrown out that he’d run for president as an independent if he couldn’t get the GOP nod. That flies in the face of his earlier pledge, which pissed off Reince Priebus, the GOP chair. But that would actually be a very stupid move for Trump. When you’re an independent, you’re on your own. You set your own schedules, have nothing but your own people. You get no support what so ever from anyone. And you get very few PAC’s to do your bidding, because they aren’t going to throw away millions of dollars on someone who’s only going to take 10-20% of the vote. The problem is that probably would be enough to take the election away from whomever the GOP does end up nominating. And that insures a Democrat win for Hillary. Maybe that was Trump’s endgame all along?
Either way, it would destroy Trump’s reputation both as a politician (though I’ll admit he doesn’t have far to go there), and in business where he would be viewed as totally shady and not able to keep a promise. I don’t think Trump is that stupid. He talks a good game, but I really doubt he would be ready to throw upwards of 10% of his net worth to the wolves just to allow Hillary the White House and beat down Ted Cruz. I think he’s actually smarter than that. In the meantime, what’s happening to his businesses? You can’t tell me they are doing great without him at the helm? And if they are, just what does that say about him as vital to his corporation’s success? Things to think about.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!