The race is on for the White House! According to an NBC News Poll, it looks like the two front-runners, if they indeed become the nominees will battle it out big time for the White House, and right now, it’s pretty much within the margin of error.
Where Hillary Clinton had been losing nationally to everybody except Donald Trump in the past, now, the GOP front-runner has over-taken the field to jump into a dead heat with Clinton. She beats Ted Cruz by five points according to the latest poll.
So, you have to ask the question, why? What has happened in the last month that would cause such a change? The only thing I can think about is that Ted Cruz has gone out and scarfed up some delegates for the second ballot if Trump can’t get to the 1,237 magic number on the first ballot. And the only reasoning behind it is that people are listening to Donald Trump and his rhetoric that it’s dirty-politics, and it’s not fair. There really hasn’t been anything else in the past week or two that would come into play. Of course, Hillary hasn’t helped herself with it either.
What is interesting is that if you dig down deep and look at some of the internals, you find some very telling facts. I have always been concerned that if Trump isn’t the nominee, he’d go rogue and run as a third-party candidate and that would throw enough votes to Hillary. Well, as it turns out, if that were to happen…53% of Trump supporters would end up voting for Cruz. 28% would go for a third-party candidate (assuming its Trump?), and 2% would vote for Hillary. 15% would sit out the election.
That’s pretty close to what happens if Trump wins the nomination. 56% of Cruz supporters would hold their nose and vote for Trump. Another 26% would find a third-party candidate to vote for (assuming there was a viable third party candidate!), 6% would actually cross over and vote for Clinton, and 9% would sit out the election.
Now, none of the situations involve what happens if Hillary runs afoul with the FBI investigation, and it also doesn’t say what happens to Hillary running against either Trump or Cruz with Bernie’s supporters. That is going to be the interesting thing to watch. He has electrified the youth, and got them juiced to supporting him. But if he’s not in the race, what happens to that group of voters that, like Trump, may never have voted before? Do they just go back to studying Econ 101? Or do they follow Hillary? After all of the bad-mouthing I’ve heard of Hillary at some Sanders rallies, I can’t imagine that happening! And, there have been polls out there that have said up to 20% of traditional Democrats will switch to vote for Trump if he’s the GOP nominee. Is that still the case? A lot of Bernie Sanders’ blue-collar working stiffs would be the ones that Trump would go after, and possibly get.
The mere fact that Trump pulled this close to Clinton this early is a good sign. Usually at this point in the campaign, the leader fades and the loser ends up over-taking them. The fact that Cruz is down, and Trump is running dead even with Clinton shows that the GOP probably does have a decent shot at this thing after all!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!