The Fat Lady IS Singing (Not Hillary!)

After last night’s I-95 primary, the fat lady has sung. It’s almost over. One more week, and this thing can be put to bed pretty much. No, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton probably aren’t going to clinch their nomination next week…Trump still needs 287 delegates and Hillary needs 242 to do that, but they’re close enough that if both win Indiana, it’s all over. Trump is leading in the state by 6 and Clinton by 4 in the Real Clear Politics average of polls (there haven’t been many taken in Indiana, and Clinton is within the margin of error).

In case you went to bed early, Trump swept the five state primaries in the northeast, winning all of them handedly. Clinton took four of the five with Rhode Island giving Sanders a slim victory (he got 13 delegates to her 11 there). Overall last night, Trump added 105 delegates to his total, a little more than he was hoping for. John Kasich added 5 and Ted Cruz a single delegate. Cruz is putting all of his eggs into this “new deal” with John Kasich where Kasich backs out of Indiana and Cruz backs out of Oregon and New Mexico. Unfortunately for Ted, that’s probably not going to work. Kasich said when he announced his participation that he was doing it for cost savings, and wouldn’t be telling Indiana voters to vote for Cruz…he’d just be skipping Indiana.

On the Democrats’ side, Hillary added 194 delegates to her total and Bernie got 129. Again, he’s close but she keeps adding to her lead. At some point he’s got to start sweeping delegates, and that’s awfully tough to do when all Democrat delegates are awarded proportionally. You basically have to win 100% of the vote in order to do that. The only way that Clinton can lose now is if her 500 or so super delegates peel away and move to Sanders. That would give him about a 200 delegate lead. But the only way that can happen is if James Comey and the FBI investigation declares that Hillary should be indicted for her email scandal, and Loretta Lynch agrees. That’s not likely to happen knowing the Dems’ and how they like to circle the wagons around their felons. Only rarely do they throw one under the bus.

So, looking ahead, we’re left with a Trump v. Clinton matchup for the fall. I think that’s going to be one of the more contentious campaigns we’ve seen in a long time. Oh, certainly not the MOST contentious, there have been some real barn-burners throughout history, but we haven’t seen the likes of this in a LONG while. Hillary can be really bitchy and whiny on the campaign trail (which never looks or sounds good on her), and Trump, well, we’ve seen the type of atomic bombs he can throw at people. It’s not like Hillary Clinton is squeaky clean. She has an awful lot of baggage she’s going to have to answer for. And saying “That happened so long ago, I’m not even going to discuss it”, isn’t going to work.

Welcome to politics in the 21st century!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!


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