No, I’m not talking about boobs. I’m talking about failure. I’m talking about something Hillary Clinton has excelled in her entire life. Not being able to finish the job. And it’s one of the big reasons why I, personally, am not that worried about November right now. I don’t care who the GOP throws up there against her, the mere fact is, the Democrats may not be in as much disarray as the Republicans, but they aren’t in much better shape.
Need proof? Well, let’s go to the numbers. If you go back to 2008, when Hillary ran against Bobo Obama, and he crushed her in the final days of the primaries to take the nomination (and subsequently the White House), there were 23.7 million Democrat votes cast during the primaries through this date. Eight years later, there have been 19.1 million Democrat votes cast during the same time period. That’s a decrease of 4.6 million or almost exactly 20%!
Now, we have to look at why. You had Hillary running in both, but you had the first black president on the line in 2008. But that only compares favorably to the crowds and votes that Bernie Sanders has been getting recently on the trail. The main difference is simple. A look back at history shows that throughout history in both parties, when a candidate runs and loses the first time, and is the front-runner for a second time, they garner fewer votes than they did the first time out. It happened with Adlai Stevenson against Dwight Eisenhower. It happened with Thomas Dewey against FDR and then against Harry Truman. And it happened with William Jennings Bryan against William McKinley (twice). Once a candidate has been exposed, their politics and positions are known and people aren’t as likely to vote for them a second time around if they’ve lost. Look at Rick Santorum this time through. The guy took Iowa in 2012, but couldn’t even muster enough votes to have to take his shoes off to count this year.
The main point here is simple. If you don’t excite your base, you don’t win. And yes, while Bernie Sanders has excited his base this year, and while Barack Obama did the same eight years ago, Hillary has failed to do it. Her crowds are small, her enthusiasm based on polling data is small, her donations have fallen off as well (Sanders has out-raised her each of the three months reported so far this year). It is more likely the Democrats are going to stay home and not vote this year. There is no major reason for them to get out and vote. Hillary may be trying to become the first female president, but she’s not a good candidate. She’s weak at debating, she has terribly staged events, and she has enough baggage to keep all the bellman in New York City busy for a month. No, I’m really not worried about Hillary Clinton.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!