The Early Line On November

I have to say that I’m really amazed at the pundits that are covering the presidential election. They’ve had this thing so screwed up from day one, I’m amazed any of them want to continue to appear on TV. I think if I were them, and I had been THAT wrong, I’d run and hide! I mean, even Gallup, the polling giant in America, fled the presidential scene after screwing up the 2012 election so bad!

Well, they are at it, shortly after Donald Trump gets the nod as the presumptive Republican nominee. And every single network out there is calling this a slam dunk for Hillary Clinton this fall. I wouldn’t totally disagree, but I’m certainly not going to drink the Kool Aid just yet.

First of all, we have to find out what kind of presidential candidate Donald Trump is going to make. We don’t know with Hillary either. We’ve only seen both in primaries (her twice, him once), and neither has been very impressive. Oh, The Donald has been impressive as far as what he accomplished, don’t get me wrong. He’s been impressive in the fact he’s out-drawn her in crowd size, about 1,000 to 1. But rally size doesn’t translate into presidential electoral votes, and that’s all that really matters.

If you were to take just raw vote totals into account, you’d say Hillary would win. Over the primaries held so far, she received 1,781,820 more votes than Trump did. Now, I realize that there were up to 13 more candidates on the GOP side than the Democrats’ side. Truth be told, there were more votes cast for the Republicans than for the Democrats in the primaries so far, but that doesn’t even matter. What matters are electoral votes. That’s the only thing that matters, and Trump has a clear path to victory with that.

If (and I’m assuming here) Trump can hold the states Mitt Romney won in 2012, and takes Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and maybe an outlier state or two like Virginia and Nevada, that would be a swing of 100 electoral votes. Obama beat Romney 332 to 206. A 100 electoral vote swing would give Trump 306 and Clinton 232. That would be a major victory for him. And according to all of the polls, he leads in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Nevada over Clinton head to head. He’s within the margin of error in Pennsylvania. That’s nothing to say if Trump were to say, win Michigan (with 16 votes), or even his home state of New York (with 29 votes). Now, he trails in both by small percentages, but it’s possible. And I haven’t even mentioned Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado, where there are another 25 electoral votes that could swing, and Trump is doing well in all of those states!

We’re 186 days to the election. Anything can happen between now and then. A lot depends on what is said on the trail and who knows with these two how many gaffes are going to be made, and how damaging they are going to be. Who knows what the FBI is going say as far as a referral and what damage it’s going to do to Hillary? And the pundits have had this one so wrong this time around, they probably should bury their heads in the sand until at least November 1st.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

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4 thoughts on “The Early Line On November

  1. Well Desert, you do not seem like the find of individual who did Psychedelics with your good buddy Matt Lauer back in the day, which brings me to this dribbling nonsense about Trump having a chance in November. Not likely as the top of ticket is headed for a disaster seen since Noah surfed what is now Turkey.

    A leopard does not change his spots and the Trumpster is going to continue his pissed off white person campaign without any specifics on how he will accomplish what he says, essentially the grafter con man I have continually posted. I say that the Blow Dreid Il Duce has no idea of what he is doing. Do let’s examine what this clown in expensive suits has done just the past few days.

    Erasing the debt, his plan is to make creditors accept less than face value of the U.S. notes and bonds they hold. Does he have any idea what this does to the full faith and credit of our debt which has been since the founding of the Republic? Evidently not and maybe he should take a few days off and go see Hamilton and maybe learn something.

    Intelligence briefings. He and his top advisors are to be privy to intelligence from the intelligence community, i.e., CIA, NSA, FBI, etc. Golly gee, his top advisor he hired, Paul Monfort, was previously the advisor to the pro Russian forces in the Ukraine. No wonder Putin loves Il Duce, cut from the same cloth and how can this hypocrite criticize Obama on Russia when he hired a Russian spin doctor. I seriously doubt this bozo is going to receive a security clearance about reading the New York Times and the Washington Post. This is an example of the kind of people he will surround himself with including his daughter and that used car looking son of his. God help us.

    Tax plan, cuts for the wealthy including eliminating the inheritance tax with nothing for the white unwashed masses he says he loves. No wonder he loves the uneducated.

    Bringing a more diverse population into the Republican party. He ate a taco bowl for Cinco de Mayo, that footage was hilarious, as if all Mexicans eat taco bowls. He would have done better goin to Jack in the Box and ordering a chulupa. His chance of winning Nevada with a huge Hispanic population is slim and none and slim just left town

    Jobs in manufacturing and coal, pure bullshit and he knows it. There is no way he can bring manufacturing jobs back from overseas and coal has been dying for forty years with the advent of clean energy. Who are we going to sell coal to? China, have you seen their air, literally? They are moving away from coal to natural gas and nuclear. India, have you seen their air, literally? They are moving to what China is doing, albeit slower.

    Gallup poll, they have not been relevant in thirty years. They are the Dick Morris and Rick Santelli of polling, they never get anything right. Rasmussen, always has been a Republican leaning poll. Look at more reputable polls and see Trump needs the Hubble telescope to Hillary.

    Ipso facto, Desert.

    • You know, you never cease to amaze me with rhetoric, and no facts behind it. Please rewrite the above and cite your sources (I do). Any liberal can scream that Trump is an idiot and can’t win. I’ve laid out a path to victory WITHOUT DOJ’s help in doing the right thing and indicting your saint of virtue. All you’ve done is use inane nicknames and your thoughts. Let’s try using facts next time, ok?

      • Just channeling my inner Trump here, saying things that no basis in fact. Actually if you have been watching the news (even Fox), read his website (that’s where the tax plan came from) or even read newspapers, even that rag The Arizona Republic, you would have seen everything I typed. I do understand that your duties may keep you from some of the above but evidently not your Wednesday golf date. Try the Quinniac poll which is highly regarded as non partisan has Trump trailing badly. You might have noticed that the Republican rats are jumping ship with this guy.

        Finally, you pull the old Republican trick of attacking the messenger and ignoring the message. At least I cite real sources and not an imaginary friend who works for the government.

      • You’re really reaching now. I think if you’re going to cite a poll, you at least ought to get the name of the poll right (it’s Quinnipiac, NOT Quinniac). It may be highly regarded, but they’d be highly disappointed that after 40 years of presidential polls, you still can’t get their name right. And no… nationally, Trump is actually 3 points ahead of Clinton in the latest NBC News Poll.\

        As far as citing “real sources”…you don’t cite any sources. I prefer not to get a life long friend in trouble for spouting off about what’s going on at his job. You’d be so lucky to know someone that’s on that side of the law. Nice try, but try again…

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