I have to say that I’m really amazed at the pundits that are covering the presidential election. They’ve had this thing so screwed up from day one, I’m amazed any of them want to continue to appear on TV. I think if I were them, and I had been THAT wrong, I’d run and hide! I mean, even Gallup, the polling giant in America, fled the presidential scene after screwing up the 2012 election so bad!
Well, they are at it, shortly after Donald Trump gets the nod as the presumptive Republican nominee. And every single network out there is calling this a slam dunk for Hillary Clinton this fall. I wouldn’t totally disagree, but I’m certainly not going to drink the Kool Aid just yet.
First of all, we have to find out what kind of presidential candidate Donald Trump is going to make. We don’t know with Hillary either. We’ve only seen both in primaries (her twice, him once), and neither has been very impressive. Oh, The Donald has been impressive as far as what he accomplished, don’t get me wrong. He’s been impressive in the fact he’s out-drawn her in crowd size, about 1,000 to 1. But rally size doesn’t translate into presidential electoral votes, and that’s all that really matters.
If you were to take just raw vote totals into account, you’d say Hillary would win. Over the primaries held so far, she received 1,781,820 more votes than Trump did. Now, I realize that there were up to 13 more candidates on the GOP side than the Democrats’ side. Truth be told, there were more votes cast for the Republicans than for the Democrats in the primaries so far, but that doesn’t even matter. What matters are electoral votes. That’s the only thing that matters, and Trump has a clear path to victory with that.
If (and I’m assuming here) Trump can hold the states Mitt Romney won in 2012, and takes Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and maybe an outlier state or two like Virginia and Nevada, that would be a swing of 100 electoral votes. Obama beat Romney 332 to 206. A 100 electoral vote swing would give Trump 306 and Clinton 232. That would be a major victory for him. And according to all of the polls, he leads in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Nevada over Clinton head to head. He’s within the margin of error in Pennsylvania. That’s nothing to say if Trump were to say, win Michigan (with 16 votes), or even his home state of New York (with 29 votes). Now, he trails in both by small percentages, but it’s possible. And I haven’t even mentioned Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado, where there are another 25 electoral votes that could swing, and Trump is doing well in all of those states!
We’re 186 days to the election. Anything can happen between now and then. A lot depends on what is said on the trail and who knows with these two how many gaffes are going to be made, and how damaging they are going to be. Who knows what the FBI is going say as far as a referral and what damage it’s going to do to Hillary? And the pundits have had this one so wrong this time around, they probably should bury their heads in the sand until at least November 1st.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!