Battleground Ties

I’ve outlined this before, but it appears that what I said earlier this past week has already come to fruition in the 2016 presidential contest. Now that we know with pretty much certainty that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will face off in the fall for the White House, it becomes clearer what needs to happen for each to win.

For Donald Trump, he’s already making inroads. He’s now pulled even in the latest Quinnipiac survey in three of the “battleground states”, with Clinton up by a single point (within the margin of error) in Florida and Pennsylvania, and Trump up by four points just outside the margin of error of three points in all of the state-wide polls.

So what does it really mean? Absolutely nothing except that usually the “presumptive” winner in November is trailing at this point, as Donald Trump is by a single point nationally in the same poll. Again, that’s within the margin of error. Obama trailed Mitt Romney at this point in 2012, though he led John McCain wire to wire in 2008. There’s a lot of ground to make up for both candidates between now and then and neither has a lock on anything due to their low standings in popularity and especially with Hillary, her trustworthiness and honesty numbers.

But to be tied or leading in three of the tossup states at this point is pretty amazing. Romney was up on one and down heavy in the other two four years ago, and McCain was down in all three eight years ago. Obama ended up winning all three states in both elections. If Trump is going to win in November, he’s going to need all three of these states, a feat he says is going to be easy to do.

Here’s what I find to be the interesting thing this year. If you look at the state races, there are a total of 16 states that are what could be considered “toss-ups”. That’s a lot more than the usually five or six that determine presidential contests. Yes, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida were toss ups last cycle, and they are this cycle as well. But Trump’s emergence has also created toss up status to states like Michigan, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. If Trump were to flip the traditional toss up states alone, he wins. Add in the other five states mentioned that traditionally go Democrat and it becomes a white wash.

So yes, Virginia, it can be a Republican victory in November. And yes…Donald Trump actually is telling the truth when he says he can win big. And all of this comes without anything being said about “the FBI Primary”. If that swings against Clinton, even in the referral stage, the whitewash becomes even larger. The question is, what is she, and the Democrats going to do about it at that point. The answer will be fun to watch being played out.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

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4 thoughts on “Battleground Ties

  1. Well Desert, I knew this post was coming today. So you are banking on one poll in early May. The Cubs are currently 25-6, but with only 19% of the season played and they are the Cubs, I am reticent to stand in line for World Series tickets. Same thing goes for polls this early. There will be the post convention bumps, like 2008 when we thought Sarah Palin had a brain only later to find out she had the brain of an amoeba. I really do not believe polls will be worth anything until after Labor Day, the traditional time the campaign starts and Congress does less business than they do now, if that is possible.

    Gallop, Ramussen and Rick Santelli and Dick Morris never get anything right. I believe the poll you should be following during the general election campaign is fivethirtyeight. Nate Silver has done two presidential elections and nailed both precisely (I admit he got Indiana and Missouri wrong in 2008, but they both had the same amount of electoral votes). I do believe you are familiar with him and if not, I’ll clue you in on what is his true wheelhouse.

    Go forth and spread truth and beauty.

    • A): I’ve never said the Cubs were anything but perennial losers. B) I’ve never backed Sarah Palin in ANYTHING she’s said. C) I used the poll YOU used as an upstanding poll….not a GOP leaning poll…but one YOU yourself said we should follow. End analysis…make sure the facts are straight next time…I called it using YOUR data!

  2. Desert, to clarify something I stated above about Nate Silver, He predicted Obama would carry Indiana and lose Missouri but the opposite happened. He called the other States, got the total vote percentage nationally correct as well as the electoral vote. No other poll came that close and applauded Nate for his efforts. Completely nailed it 2012, everything. As for Dick Morris, he predicted a landslide for Romney in 2012 the day before the election. Why does he still have a job at Fox doing analysis? Why does Karl Rove still show up?

    • And to that end I don’t think ANY of them have a crystal ball. NONE of them predicted Donald Trump would end up being the Republican nominee…and NONE of them know what the hell will happen in the future. Why Does Karl Rove or Dick Morris still show up on Fox News? For the same reason that half the Democrats that helped get Bill Clinton elected 24 years ago still show up on CNN and MSNBC. Because those networks still think they are credible sources of information. My point is, and always has been, because you called something once doesn’t mean you’re going to call it again.

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