Oh, I know…you are a Hillary supporter and you see the latest poll come out that she’s leading Trump by four points, and your heart skips a beat. Or you’re a Trump supporter and you see the latest poll that comes out and he’s up by four points over Hillary and you want to have a beer and celebrate.
It’s all a bunch of BS and the pollsters know it.
It’s not that polls are BS. It’s that this year they aren’t going to mean anything, especially five months out from the election. There is so much that could go wrong with either campaign at this point, especially with these two, that it’s a wonder why anyone would even want to waste money taking a poll at this point.
There are several million people that probably won’t make up their minds until the last week before election day (which is November 8th if you’re keeping score). That’s a full five months up the road. Think of what can happen in the next five months: Hillary could be indicted for her email server problems. Trump could end up getting slapped with $100 million in fines for Trump U. Hillary could end up losing her support of super-delegates and they could sit on their hands at the convention or go to Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren could swoop in and be the White Knights of the Democrats in Philadelphia. Trump could actually say something that ends up killing him in the polls. There are any number of things that could take place between now and November 8th. And any one of them is really plausible.
Now add in the fact that the pollsters have an extremely tough job this year and the polls are absolutely worthless. Not only are they usually wrong, but this year it’s more difficult. That’s because both Trump and Clinton have negative numbers when it comes to believability and likeability. The Democrats believe Trump lies, and everyone believes Hillary lies. So the pollsters have a problem. They not only have to measure SUPPORT for a particular candidate, but they have to also measure how many people are voting for one or the other of the two because they dislike their party’s choice so much. And that makes it almost impossible to judge.
So, basically just chill until after Labor Day. Don’t worry…I’ll still keep an eye on the campaigns for you and will give you all the information you need…truthful and correct as always. I’ll even continue to let in some of the inane comments from the other side that usually make no sense. But hey… you need some humor in your summer don’t you? So go enjoy the pool, and the beach, and the theme parks. Get that tan and enjoy yourself. I’ll hold down the fort.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!