I’ve been waiting patiently to see what the poll numbers would show ever since the FBI Primary went to Hillary Clinton. Would the country join her in saying she did nothing wrong? Apparently not. The folks at Rasmussen, which is a highly respected polling firm, now says that Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton 44-37% in nationwide polling. 13% support some other candidate and 6% haven’t made up their mind yet or haven’t found someone worth supporting. To me, that number is about what I would have expected.
I always thought that if Hillary were to have been indicted, it was game over. She would basically drop to 10% in the polls. If she were referred by the FBI, but not indicted it would cost her 20-25%, and if she were to skate free, she’d still lose 10-15%. That is exactly what this poll shows. And the reasons are clear.
The feeling the American people have, and the poll showed it, is that Hillary Clinton wasn’t found not guilty of anything. She skated on something else. Her credibility numbers haven’t improved…they’ve gotten worse. So, while she may have legally escaped a problem, politically she created a bigger problem. And that is something that is going to cost her votes from now through the election in November. It’s tough to prove yourself trustworthy and honest when you’ve been a liar and a cheat for your entire life. That seems to be what’s happening here.
What’s worse, is that the pundits on both sides of the aisle are not going to let this thing die. A week after James Comey said there wasn’t case law to support a referral (I didn’t think you needed case law to refer), both liberal media and conservative media have bitten into this thing like it’s a shark’s next meal. It’s got legs that are going to haunt Hillary much worse than Mitt Romney’s tax return or his “47% comment”. Where Romney was branded “out of touch” with mainstream America, Clinton has already been branded “above the law”. The FBI refusal to refer (which by the way, has angered a ton of FBI agents who worked on the case!), has done nothing but cement that notion in the minds of voters on both sides of the political spectrum.
The poll has been tracking Trump vs. Hillary since mid-October. And with the exception of a two week stint back in late April and early May of last year, Hillary has led the whole way. This is the largest Trump lead…last week he had a 42-40% lead over Hillary, so it’s only getting worse for the Arkansas Princess.
Now, I’m going to be quick to say that anything can happen from here to election day, and I’m not putting a ton of stock into these numbers. While the country is very split on these two, and most people probably won’t change, it’s not in the bag. If another scandal drops on Hillary or the Clinton Global Initiative, or if Donald Trump says something that’s incredibly stupid again, these numbers probably can and will change. But if Trump sticks to what Paul Manafort tells him to do, and Hillary remains bashing Trump rather than talking about the issues, the numbers will remain about the same. Time will indeed tell.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!