There’s a lot more riding on the upcoming November election than just the White House. If you don’t believe me, ask any of the Senate Democrats who were all a-twitter over a meeting with Hillary Clinton the other day…and not a good twitter either. They were worried. They were scared. They were upset. They questioned how, she could outspend Trump and his PAC $75 million to $3.6 million and be even to losing to him. They were beyond worried.
Well, the reason she gave them was part of the answer, but as we all know, when you ask a Clinton a question, you rarely if ever, get the truth. She said that people were not trusting of governments much this cycle, and that is why she is losing to Trump at the moment. The actual truth goes much deeper.
Trump hasn’t spent the money for two reasons. First, he doesn’t have to. He’s totally re-written the playbook on running elections (kind of like Obama did in 2008), and second and most importantly, he doesn’t want to dip into his own pocket and spend a billion. He doesn’t have the donor cash because he hasn’t been asking for the donor cash yet (but he’s starting to). That’s one reason Democrats are worried.
The other reasons they’re worried is because they want to take back the Senate this fall and they can’t do it if Hillary loses. They have felt certain since late winter that with Trump surging their chances of winning went up too. That hasn’t been the case (ask any of the 16 real politicians Trump slayed on his way to the nomination!).
Hillary missed the main point of why they were worried. She’s trailing Trump in six of the need-to-win nine battle ground states. She’s winning in Colorado and Virginia within the margin of error and tied in Ohio. Trump leads in all of the others by margins either just inside the margin of error or way outside of it depending on the state. And yes, it appears that Trump could be right. He actually could be re-writing the electoral map on this one. Who would have dreamed Trump up in Pennsylvania? Who would have thought that Clinton’s lead is only 4 points in New Jersey? New Jersey of all places! Even if you use “electoral math” (according to Real Clear Politics for the criminally insane that think I make this stuff up), Trump has 95 electoral votes, Clinton 90, with a whopping 165 up for grabs. LOTS of real estate to fight over this year…and Trump is leading in most of them.
Of course, if Gary Johnson ends up scarfing up a few of those electoral votes and nobody gets to 270, then it goes to the House of Representatives (controlled heavily by the GOP), which is the same thing as a Trump victory. Yeah…if I were a Senate Democrat up for re-election this year, I think I might be worried a little bit too. It’s a little early to start counting the chickens, but all things considered, with the public distrust of Hillary, and if Trumps doesn’t say anything more that’s a stupid and inane comment, then this could end up being a fun year after all!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!