I want to preface this whole piece by saying that I still do believe that no poll accurately reflects the voters’ minds until we get closer to election day, and if we’ve learned anything over the last three or four presidential cycles it’s that we probably depend way too much on these things, and that people are not always honest when it comes to talking to pollsters (SHOCK!). There’s the disclaimer.
I saw an interesting interview on a local TV show out here the other day. It was a local pollster who was talking about presidential politics. He was asked how Arizona would vote in the presidential election. What surprised me is all of the national pundits have said Arizona is in play. Not this guy. He said that Trump would win Arizona by 7 points or more because he “underperforms in all of the polls”.
That was a very interesting thought and one that I had been mulling over. Most polls have had Hillary Clinton leading by anywhere from 6 to 10 points. But the LA Times/USC poll, which does things a little differently, had Donald Trump up by 2. Now, most of these are still using “registered voters” instead of the more expensive to do “likely voters” (the likely voters category is a LOT more accurate). And most of the polls Hillary still falls within the margin of error, as does Trump in the LA Times poll (and by the way for my liberal friends…the Times is not exactly what you’d call a “conservative rag”.
This guy said on the local show that the 6-10 point lead was the remaining “convention bounce” that Clinton had enjoyed for the past month. That, he said, is starting to go away, and should dissipate to pretty much a dead heat in the next couple of weeks. Well, this guy gained a lot of credibility in my book because it’s happening just as he said. The Reuters/IPSOS poll just came out and Clinton’s lead had shrunk from 12 points to 5 in just a week. Now, these were “likely voters”, which is the more accurate of the two. The fact that it dropped 7 points in just 7 days is interesting. It shows two things: Hillary’s bounce had been a major part of the huge lead she had and; she had an absolutely abysmal week… so much so that she stopped campaigning and started fund raising. But even outspending Trump $35 million to $5 million in the last two weeks, she’s dropped in every major poll. That tells me something is happening out there. One of the things is, Trump isn’t stepping on his male member quite as much as he had. And, American’s are starting to leave summer vacation behind and starting to pay attention.
If indeed Trump does “under poll” in these surveys, as this pollster predicted, it could be an even race right now. And if Julian Assange from WikiLeaks does what he says and releases documents that “will cause Hillary Clinton to be arrested” (which I highly doubt), it could very well be enough to sway the electorate. There are two other things which will weigh in here. There are three debates coming up, and Trump has an edge. Oh, Clinton is a much more skilled debater than Trump, no doubt. But so was Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Hell, Cruz was a national debate champion, and he STILL lost to Trump, because Trump’s style is so unconventional. The other problem Hillary has coming up is that on September 23rd, the State Department needs to release another batch of emails to Judicial Watch, and these will involve a lot more scandal for the Democrat nominee. That’s just six weeks ahead of the election and a week ahead of the first debate. It should prove to be very interesting.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!