Interesting Polling Numbers…

I want to preface this whole piece by saying that I still do believe that no poll accurately reflects the voters’ minds until we get closer to election day, and if we’ve learned anything over the last three or four presidential cycles it’s that we probably depend way too much on these things, and that people are not always honest when it comes to talking to pollsters (SHOCK!). There’s the disclaimer.

I saw an interesting interview on a local TV show out here the other day. It was a local pollster who was talking about presidential politics. He was asked how Arizona would vote in the presidential election. What surprised me is all of the national pundits have said Arizona is in play. Not this guy. He said that Trump would win Arizona by 7 points or more because he “underperforms in all of the polls”.

That was a very interesting thought and one that I had been mulling over. Most polls have had Hillary Clinton leading by anywhere from 6 to 10 points. But the LA Times/USC poll, which does things a little differently, had Donald Trump up by 2. Now, most of these are still using “registered voters” instead of the more expensive to do “likely voters” (the likely voters category is a LOT more accurate). And most of the polls Hillary still falls within the margin of error, as does Trump in the LA Times poll (and by the way for my liberal friends…the Times is not exactly what you’d call a “conservative rag”.

This guy said on the local show that the 6-10 point lead was the remaining “convention bounce” that Clinton had enjoyed for the past month. That, he said, is starting to go away, and should dissipate to pretty much a dead heat in the next couple of weeks. Well, this guy gained a lot of credibility in my book because it’s happening just as he said. The Reuters/IPSOS poll just came out and Clinton’s lead had shrunk from 12 points to 5 in just a week. Now, these were “likely voters”, which is the more accurate of the two. The fact that it dropped 7 points in just 7 days is interesting. It shows two things: Hillary’s bounce had been a major part of the huge lead she had and; she had an absolutely abysmal week… so much so that she stopped campaigning and started fund raising. But even outspending Trump $35 million to $5 million in the last two weeks, she’s dropped in every major poll. That tells me something is happening out there. One of the things is, Trump isn’t stepping on his male member quite as much as he had. And, American’s are starting to leave summer vacation behind and starting to pay attention.

If indeed Trump does “under poll” in these surveys, as this pollster predicted, it could be an even race right now. And if Julian Assange from WikiLeaks does what he says and releases documents that “will cause Hillary Clinton to be arrested” (which I highly doubt), it could very well be enough to sway the electorate. There are two other things which will weigh in here. There are three debates coming up, and Trump has an edge. Oh, Clinton is a much more skilled debater than Trump, no doubt. But so was Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Hell, Cruz was a national debate champion, and he STILL lost to Trump, because Trump’s style is so unconventional. The other problem Hillary has coming up is that on September 23rd, the State Department needs to release another batch of emails to Judicial Watch, and these will involve a lot more scandal for the Democrat nominee. That’s just six weeks ahead of the election and a week ahead of the first debate. It should prove to be very interesting.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “Interesting Polling Numbers…

  1. Wellllll, isn’t that a great point about Rubio and Cruz. They both still failed in a Trump Face-off. Hillary, on the other hand, is a very accomplished speaker, like her or not, and from all accounts and purposes should run circles around Trump. BUT, what I find interesting, is that Hillary won’t even have conversations with the press (and in the rare instance she does engage she seems easily rattled and angered). So, since we all know that Trump will do alllll in his power to throw her off balance (shouldn’t be too difficult these days! LOLOL!) it will be interesting to watch. I think Trump will pull out the worst in her and at the very least bring on one of her episodes. I wait with anticipation! Yea, that did seem a bit sadistic… LOL!

  2. Well Desert, I agree with you sort of polls as I do not find them relevant until about the middle of October.

    There is one poll that has been spot on the past two election cycles is fivethirtyeight. Nate Silver is a mathematical genius and absolutely nailed it in 2008 as to electoral vote (I admit he got Indiana and Missouri wrong, win in IN and loss in MO but the opposite happened by the electoral votes were the same), vote percentage, Senate and House races. Not bad for his first shot at this. Nailed it again in 2012 getting everything right. This is the site to watch, especially since Hillary is a 79%+ chance of being elected. I wouldn’t listen to Dick Morris as he gets everything wrong or Karl “Turdblossom” Rove who is still trying to determine how Romney lost Ohio. He is currently being held in an undisclosed location in the Fake News building.

    As you know being a history jock, I am heavily into research scratching below the surface to see if anything supports the numbers and what I have found is quite revealing. First and foremost, Trump has fallen into the Romney trap, basically a shitty ground game, actually it is almost nonexistent. Case in point, Virginia. Hillary has more workers in Virginia than Trump has nationally. Ouch! She also has triple the office nationally than Trump. Florida, a swing State, Trump has one office to Hillary’s 300. Utah might even go Hillary and she has an office in Salt Lake and Trump has an office in Utah………..where? Actually he has no office. Watch out for those testy Mormons. Then he is traveling to States he cannot flip like California, Connecticut and Washington, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 32 years or Mississippi and Texas who are red anyway. What’s the point? Waste of resources and it falls at the feet of the blonde bimbo Kellyanne Conway, his campaign manager. Her defense was that these were planned anyway. She ever think of cancelling them, clearly out of her league. she is a pollster and spin doctor and that is all she is. Speaking of his campaign, maybe someone in the press can ask Kellyanne why when Trump was self funding during the primaries, the rent for his headquarters in Trump Tower was around $70k and after being nominated the rent and staff costs went up five fold even though he less staff and billed to the campaign. So, to all you suckers out there who sent this grifter money, you are sending money to the Trump campaign so it can be used to pay Trump Organization which is owned by Trump. He is lining his pocket with your money. Possible campaign law violation. Lock him up! Lock him up! Lock him up! Hopefully with Sheriff Blow!

    Then there are demographics and to say he is getting killed is being polite. College educated women, white Catholics, Hispanic Catholics, African Americans, Hispanics in general, higher income voters and that is just a start. This is a big shit sandwich and his campaign staff should be filling out their future plans forms now, except Mike Pence who will be on TV at three in morning begging for worker comp and personal injury cases. Need a check, call Mike, reasonable fees.

    That’s the view from the cheap seats. Cubs magic number is 18. Out patient therapy should be renamed enhanced interrogation therapy. BTW, I confessed to killing Kennedy yesterday even though I was still in high school just to stop the pain.

    Lorra B, make a deal with you, Hillary does a press conference (although she has done a ton of interviews) when the tRumper releases his tax returns, which let’s face it, in spite of that bullshit audit argument, he never will.

    Now if you will excuse me, I am going to take some Tylenol and continue my home sadistic exercises.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s