CNN came out with their latest poll on Monday of this week for the presidential race, and it echoed what Reuters, the LA Times, Rasmussen, and the Wall St. Journal have all said in their most recent polls.
Hillary Clinton’s lead, and convention bounce have evaporated. Donald Trump is now leading.
This is rather remarkable that ALL of the polls are now saying the same thing. Again, I caution both sides not to panic because there is still nine weeks before the election, and the lead is only 2-4 points depending on the poll. But I find it interesting that even with all of the problems Donald Trump had in August, firing Paul Manafort, all of the mis-steps and gaffes, he still was able to erase Clinton’s double digit lead over him in four short weeks and start taking the lead.
And yes…I will agree with my Democrat friends…there is only one poll that counts and that one is taken on November 8th. There are many things that can happen between now and then to either of the two candidates that could sway this thing. The debates are coming up starting on the 26th of this month and if someone performs poorly, or gets “zinged” a lot, it could sway the voters (remember Al Gore’s heavy sighing in the first 2000 debate? It was said that’s what cost him the election with George W. Bush). There could be more scandals coming out on Clinton’s emails. The State Department has until the 23rd of this month to release 17,000 more of her “just found” emails. Donald Trump could say something (and probably will) stupid that effects the outcome. And Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks has promised an “October Surprise” that will either get Hillary thrown in jail or end her political career. Either way, a lot can happen!
Here’s what we know based on the CNN poll, and for all intents and purposes, it’s mirrored in the other polls I mentioned. Hillary is getting the support of 92% of Democrats at this point. Trump is getting support of 90% of the Republicans. Where Trump has it over Clinton is with independents. Trump gets 49% of their vote, Clinton is getting 29%. Johnson and Stein divvy up the rest. Oh, and by the way, according to the CNN analysis, neither Johnson nor Stein will make the stage in the debates. They won’t be anywhere near the 15% of the vote necessary to qualify. Johnson has said that’s key to his campaign, so he probably won’t be much of a factor. CNN had Johnson at 7% and Stein at 2%.
Who will win? Well, my old crystal ball from high school said it would be Hillary. I’m not so sure anymore. A lot can happen in 9 weeks. In fact, a lot has happened in the last 9 weeks. It’s going to be a bumpy ride so make sure you’re strapped in, and lay in for that extra big bag of popping corn… get the really good oil…the one with the butter flavoring added…and go for the special popcorn salt…the orange stuff. It’s going to be worth it! I promise!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!