This is one of those strange elections when it doesn’t matter what’s said, it probably is said against one of the candidates, and it probably is going to do damage in the polls. It’s an election cycle when you really don’t want to make the network news at night, because it’s probably dealing with some scandal. And it’s with that in mind that we take a look at the every-shifting, ever-changing polls between two candidates that America wants nothing to do with.
Donald Trump’s problem with women and the comments he made hit before last Sunday’s debate. It meant Hillary picked up a lot of ground…11 points in Rasmussen! That’s HUGE this late in the going. And it’s also an insurmountable lead. But then they held the debate on Sunday in which Hillary got shellacked. All of a sudden on Monday, the daily Rasmussen tracking poll showed her up by only 7. It was Hillary by 5 points on Tuesday, by 4 points on Wednesday when the latest WikiLeaks documents hit showing that Hillary had not only colluded with Donna Brazile when she was at CNN and the DNC about her debate questions, she also colluded with staffers at the Department of Justice about her email server scandal. Oops. That caught on with the public even though the major mainstream liberal press opted not to cover it.
So, on Thursday, Donald Trump actually took at 2 point lead over Hillary in the daily tracking poll. Now, that doesn’t mean much, because it’s not how the entire country sees it that matters, it’s who wins the various states. The prevailing wisdom has always been that Trump had the tougher road to victory because he not only had to win the states Mitt Romney won in 2012, but he also had to win a lot more of the battleground states. So, he forged into Pennsylvania, where’s he’s at least competitive at this point. He’s done well in Ohio, though it’s gone back and forth. He’s doing well in North Carolina and Florida. He’s not doing as well in Virginia, but it looks like he’ll pull out Iowa, and he may even flip Nevada and possibly Colorado. Now, IF (and it’s a huge if!) he would do that, he would beat Hillary. Not by much, but this isn’t the NFL where we bet on the point spread.
There are two major “IF’s” out there. Actually, there are three. IF Hillary can’t shake the WikiLeaks email dump, which proves once and for all that she and her staff had been hacked, IF Donald Trump can avoid stepping on his male member for three and a half weeks, and IF Trump does as well in the debate in Las Vegas as he did in St. Louis, then he does have a chance. That last debate win was a 13 point swing, and closed the race despite all the negative publicity about his “women problems”. And it doesn’t look as if Clinton is going to be able to do anything to stem the tide of the email scandals that have mounted almost daily for the past year and a half. That being said, as I’ve said before, lay in for a lot of popcorn, a schload of butter, and a few bottles of wine for Tuesday the 8th. It’s going to be a bumpy landing!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!