I’m beginning to think with all of the negativity going on in this presidential election, it could very well turn out that Hillary Clinton is the one with the uphill battle coming up. There are basically two points to the theory, and if correct, she’s in a lot deeper doo-doo than any poll is letting on. Let’s explore.
The first and most important point is the voter excitement. Trump supporters according to many polls (the latest is Fox, but there are CNN polls that show the same thing) are about 70% “excited” or “very excited” to be going to the polls for Trump. For Clinton that number has been around 40-45% throughout the campaign. Why is that important? Well, if you’re excited about voting for someone, it’s a priority and you’ll make a point to get out and vote. We’re already seeing that in some of the battleground states that have early voting. Republicans are taking up to 70% of the early ballots (nothing is being counted…these are 70% of the voting is going to people registered as Republicans).
Obama won even when the country was a mess because his base was more enthused than either John McCain’s base or Mitt Romney’s base. That’s not the way it is this time out. People are more excited to vote for Trump than Hillary, and while she’s got the better ground game, you can’t hold a gun to people’s heads and force them to vote yet, can you?
The other factor is the “Right Track/Wrong Track” factor. Clinton has come out and said she basically is going to tweak Obama policies, but she’s going to keep the overall structure in place. That would be nice if most Americans felt that was working, but they don’t. 49% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans feel that we’re on the right track. Independents, who are going to decide the election? 28% feel we’re doing ok. Overall, 28% of Americans feel we’re on the right track. That’s not good for any candidate who is running on the status quo ticket…as Hillary Clinton is. Oh…that’s according to Gallup, a rather liberal organization who was embarrassed by their last two presidential polling outings, so they decided not to poll the eventual winner this time out…but they are doing issues.
In fact, the only president that has EVER been able to beat that trend was Obama. And the fact he got more blacks to vote than ever before has been seen as the reason he won. They were more excited to vote for him because he’d be the first black president (Bill Clinton not withstanding).
So, overall, if you take a look at things, Hillary does have a much tougher road to climb, even though the polling says it’s close. Remember…the polling two days before the election gave it to Romney by 4 points last time out too. But he was exciting as egg shell white paint, and it showed in the end result. At least the GOP doesn’t have to worry about Trump being boring.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!