Could Hillary Be The One With The “Uphill Battle”?

I’m beginning to think with all of the negativity going on in this presidential election, it could very well turn out that Hillary Clinton is the one with the uphill battle coming up. There are basically two points to the theory, and if correct, she’s in a lot deeper doo-doo than any poll is letting on. Let’s explore.

The first and most important point is the voter excitement. Trump supporters according to many polls (the latest is Fox, but there are CNN polls that show the same thing) are about 70% “excited” or “very excited” to be going to the polls for Trump. For Clinton that number has been around 40-45% throughout the campaign. Why is that important? Well, if you’re excited about voting for someone, it’s a priority and you’ll make a point to get out and vote. We’re already seeing that in some of the battleground states that have early voting. Republicans are taking up to 70% of the early ballots (nothing is being counted…these are 70% of the voting is going to people registered as Republicans).

Obama won even when the country was a mess because his base was more enthused than either John McCain’s base or Mitt Romney’s base. That’s not the way it is this time out. People are more excited to vote for Trump than Hillary, and while she’s got the better ground game, you can’t hold a gun to people’s heads and force them to vote yet, can you?

The other factor is the “Right Track/Wrong Track” factor. Clinton has come out and said she basically is going to tweak Obama policies, but she’s going to keep the overall structure in place. That would be nice if most Americans felt that was working, but they don’t. 49% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans feel that we’re on the right track. Independents, who are going to decide the election? 28% feel we’re doing ok. Overall, 28% of Americans feel we’re on the right track. That’s not good for any candidate who is running on the status quo ticket…as Hillary Clinton is. Oh…that’s according to Gallup, a rather liberal organization who was embarrassed by their last two presidential polling outings, so they decided not to poll the eventual winner this time out…but they are doing issues.

In fact, the only president that has EVER been able to beat that trend was Obama. And the fact he got more blacks to vote than ever before has been seen as the reason he won. They were more excited to vote for him because he’d be the first black president (Bill Clinton not withstanding).

So, overall, if you take a look at things, Hillary does have a much tougher road to climb, even though the polling says it’s close. Remember…the polling two days before the election gave it to Romney by 4 points last time out too. But he was exciting as egg shell white paint, and it showed in the end result. At least the GOP doesn’t have to worry about Trump being boring.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Advertisements

8 thoughts on “Could Hillary Be The One With The “Uphill Battle”?

  1. Pingback: Could Hillary Be The One With The “Uphill Battle”? |
  2. I have a feeling that Hildabeast will have a very hard road ahead. Donald needs to keep his cool and stop trying to defend himself, laugh at her accusations and move on. But, will the ego-maniac that needs to have the last word be able to still his tongue?? Hmmmmm. tonight will tell!

      • If he could have just stopped his mouth from uttering stupid things like saying what an awful person she is. It’s that crap that sends voters over the edge and the media jumps on it and it will be all they talk about, not the fact that he did hand her her butt with both hands on a few topics! Trump, Trump, Trump… I just have no clue how this will end. Bleh…

  3. Well Desert and Lorra, this is no Dewey defeats Truman election.

    Polling is extremely accurate there days and I saw a long time Republican stragest this morning say as much singling out FiveThirtyEight as the best. With that in mind, aside from the clueless white people vote, what other demographic does Il Duce have? Certainly not the Hispanic vote, not the white college educated women vote, African American vote is gone, millennials finally realized that Supreme Court justices are more important than third party protest votes, especially since the Bern has moved Hillary to the left with a progressive platform.

    You may think that there is a untapped white supremist vote out there, but they are in their command bunkers, er, basements waiting for tRump TV. This election wil be a landslide of epic proportions.

    Sit back and enjoy the ride.

    Duce will go off the rails again tonight. If I was Hillary, I would have invited every woman who has come out with groping claims, a large group of contractors Duce put out of business and put them in the front row just for fun.

    I see that Clown Boy has no birth issues with the president’s half brother when it comes to voting as he holds dual citizenship. Just making a point.

    • Off base as usual. First of all, do YOU have ESP? How do you know this isn’t a Dewey/Truman election? Have you already SEEN the results? If so, I’m amazed because the rest of the world hasn’t. Second, no, you’re wrong on polling…as someone that spent a LOT of time doing it in the media, I can tell you that polling is NOT as accurate as you’d like to believe. How else would you explain Mitt Romney losing the election to Bobo by 4 points (3.9 actually), when 90% of the polls had him winning by 4 points. Time for you to back up your feelings with fact there pal!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s