I’ve been reading a lot of rather interesting articles that are questioning most of the major polls… and they are likening it to the BREXIT polls in England before that vote a while back. You remember that one, don’t you? All of the polls said that England should stay in the European Union…it was about a four point swing in favor of staying. Then end result was a four point swing in the other direction, leaving all of the “stay” folks wondering what the hell happened?
Well, the same phenomena could be happening here according to these articles. There are two major polls that give Trump a two point lead and the rest have Clinton up by anywhere between 5-10 points. I’m NOT counting the LA Times/USC poll, which has had Trump up for the last two months either. No, the polls that are currently showing Trump up are daily tracking polls with Rasmussen, and the IBD/TIPP poll both have Trump up by about 2 points.
The only reason this has any correlation to the BREXIT polling in Great Britain is because it’s already happened here. Look back at the Democrat primary. In the Michigan primary, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 21 points in the Real Clear Politics average 58-37%. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight blog only said Sanders had a 1% chance of winning Michigan. He did by the way…50% to 48%.
What I think is funny is that most of the pundits that you see on TV are telling us that polls may be off by a point or two, but they are NEVER wrong by the amount Hillary is leading by. What I really think is funny is the pundits also said a year ago that Donald Trump would never be the Republican nominee. Look, they’ve been wrong from day one in this election. It’s a different world out there. I’m not saying Trump is going to beat Hillary, NOBODY knows that, just like NOBODY knows if Hillary is going to defeat Trump. If they tell you otherwise, they are showing their stupidity. Polls CAN be wrong, have been wrong, and most certainly will be wrong again!
Want some extra proof? Look at what happened to the company that started polling presidential elections…Gallup. They were so far off in the polling in 2012 (they had Romney winning by 5 points back then the week of the election), that they actually stopped presidential polling altogether because they were so embarrassed by the results.
What can happen? Well, if the Hillary voters out there think it’s going to be a 10 point landslide, and that she’s going to end up with 350 electoral college votes, they’re more likely to stay home. That’s what happened in England…and that’s what happened with Romney. Right now, that’s what every one of the media is crying. It’s going to be a short night. Well, it might. And then again it might not.
I’ve looked at the polling guts from the IBD/TIPP polling and it looks pretty legitimate to me. They surveyed 268 Democrats, 228 Republicans, and 240 Independents. The male/female spread was pretty much that of the country, as was the national distribution. The question was pretty mundane and wasn’t tilted one way or the other. So, why the huge disparity in outcome? That’s why we actually are voting on November 8th!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!