You can turn on any newscast on any station (including Fox News), and the pundits are screaming that this thing is pretty much over. Hillary has a double-digit lead over Donald and you may as well not even bother to vote in this one…it’s over. The fat lady hasn’t just sung, she’s left the building and is at home soaking in a tub somewhere.
I have found that to be very interesting because there are a few polls, as I outlined yesterday that have it a LOT closer than that, and have Hillary Clinton actually LOSING to Trump. What I find amazing is that there is a guy, a Poli-Sci professor at the State University of New York Stony Brook named Helmut Norpoth who is disagreeing with all of the pundits. And he has since day one. What does that matter? Well, he’s called the last five elections correctly using his model, including the 2000 election where George W. Bush beat Al Gore with Gore winning the popular vote.
It’s interesting because he says exactly what I’ve been saying. The media has been trying to suppress the interest in Trump’s supporters going to the polls by basically announcing that it’s over. Now, also as I’ve said before, it may be. I don’t know and neither do you, and certainly neither do they. It all depends on who gets their people out to the polls on November 8th.
I’ve read many reports from Florida that the early voting is going for Trump down there 8-1 over Hillary in early voting. I’ve read many reports that Trump has made many in-roads in Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and even Colorado and Nevada. I’ve read reports that had Clinton up 1 point in Arizona, and also seen where Trump is leading out here by 10 points. Who are you going to believe?
Norpoth puts his money on Trump because of two simple factors. The first is the “primary factor”. Whoever garners the most votes in the primary is usually the one that ends up winning the general election. That makes sense. He also states one theory I have professed for the last year, the “pendulum theory”, whereby one party that’s been in office for eight years usually loses the next election because the people are tired of that style of governing and want something else. It’s had one hiccup in the past 75 years and that was when George HW Bush beat Michael Dukakis in a landslide. Of course, that was after eight years of pretty strong performance by a rather beloved president. Both factors show that Trump should win, and Norpoth gives it an 87% chance.
What about the overseas bettors? The people that put their money where their mouths are seem to have already chosen a winner as well. The British bookmaker, William Hill has said that in the last three weeks, 65% of all bets placed on the US presidential election have been placed on Donald Trump. Again, it’s not a certainty, it’s a statistic. And statistics don’t vote.
All I’m saying is, don’t believe the media…ANY media. This thing isn’t over yet. The fat lady isn’t in her bathtub, hasn’t sung, and hasn’t even begun to warm up. Now all we have to do is watch out for the Democrats’ voter fraud that they’re so good at!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!